Opinion for the Court filed by Circuit Judge GINSBURG.
Dissenting opinion filed by Circuit Judge HENDERSON.
GINSBURG, Circuit Judge:
Two scientists brought this suit to enjoin the National Institutes of Health from funding research using human embryonic stem cells (ESCs) pursuant to the NIH’s 2009 Guidelines. The district court granted their motion for a preliminary injunction, concluding they were likely to succeed in showing the Guidelines violated the Dickey-Wicker Amendment, an appropriations rider that bars federal funding for [390] research in which a human embryo is destroyed. We conclude the plaintiffs are unlikely to prevail because Dickey-Wicker is ambiguous and the NIH seems reasonably to have concluded that, although Dickey-Wicker bars funding for the destructive act of deriving an ESC from an embryo, it does not prohibit funding a research project in which an ESC will be used. We therefore vacate the preliminary injunction.
I. Background
As we explained at an earlier stage of this case, stem cells have the potential of yielding treatments for a wide range of afflictions because scientists can cause them to function as any one of a number of specific types of cell. 610 F.3d 69, 70 (2010) 0Sherley I). We there considered two different classes of human stem cells: adult stem cells, which are somewhat specialized, and ESCs, which are pluripotent, meaning they can develop into nearly any of the 200 types of human cell. In addition to these two established categories, we note the recent development of induced pluripotent stem cells, which are adult stem cells reprogrammed to a stage of development at which they are pluripotent. There is some debate as to which type of stem cell holds more promise of yielding therapeutic applications.
Adult stem cells can be found in the various tissues and organs of the human body. ESCs, by contrast, can be found only in a human embryo; isolating an ESC requires removing the “inner cell mass” of the embryo, a process that destroys the embryo. The stem cells among the 30 or so cells in the inner cell mass are then placed in a culture, where they will divide continuously without differentiating, thus forming a “stem cell line” of identical cells. An individual ESC may be removed from the line without disrupting either the multiplication process or the durability of the line. The removed cell may then be used in a research project — either by the investigator who extracted it or by another — in which the ESC will be caused to develop into the type of cell pertinent to that research. Most stem cell lines are maintained by one or another of several research universities, which make them available for scientific use, usually for a small fee.
The plaintiffs in this case, Drs. James Sherley and Theresa Deisher, are scientists who use only adult stem cells in their research. They contend the NIH has, by funding research projects using ESCs, violated the Dickey-Wicker Amendment, which the Congress has included in the annual appropriation for the Department of Health and Human Services each year since 1996. Dickey-Wicker prohibits the NIH from funding:
(1) the creation of a human embryo or embryos for research purposes; or (2) research in which a human embryo or embryos are destroyed, discarded, or knowingly subjected to risk of injury or death greater than that allowed for research on fetuses in útero under 45 C.F.R. 46.204(b) and section 498(b) of the Public Health Service Act (42 U.S.C. 289g(b)).
Pub.L. No. 111-117, § 509(a)(2), 123 Stat. 3034, 3280-81.
In 1996, when the Congress first passed Dickey-Wicker, scientists had taken steps to isolate ESCs but had not yet been able to stabilize them for research in the laboratory. The historical record suggests the Congress passed the Amendment chiefly to preclude President Clinton from acting upon an NIH report recommending federal funding for research using embryos that had been created for the purpose of in vitro fertilization. See O. Carter Snead, Science, Public Bioethics, and the Problem [391] of Integration, 43 U.C. Davis L.Rev. 1529, 1546 (2010). Dickey-Wicker became directly relevant to ESCs only in 1998, when researchers at the University of Wisconsin succeeded in generating a stable line of ESCs, which they made available to investigators who might apply for NIH funding.
For that reason, on January 15, 1999, the General Counsel of the Department of Health and Human Services issued a memorandum addressing whether Dickey-Wicker permits federal funding of research using ESCs that had been derived before the funded project began; she concluded such funding is permissible because ESCs are not “embryos.” After notice and comment, the NIH issued funding guidelines consistent with this opinion, see 65 Fed.Reg. 51,976 (2000), but the NIH did not fund any ESC research project while President Clinton was in office.
Early in 2001, President Bush directed the NIH not to fund any project pursuant to President Clinton’s policy; later that year he decided funding for ESC research would be limited to projects using the approximately 60 then-extant cell lines derived from “embryos that ha[d] already been destroyed.” See 37 Weekly Comp. Pres. Doc. 1149, 1151 (Aug. 9, 2001); see also Exec. Order No. 13,435, 72 Fed.Reg. 34,591 (2007); Doe v. Obama, 631 F.3d 157, 159 (4th Cir.2011). Meanwhile, the Congress continued to reenact Dickey-Wicker each year of the Bush Administration.
Upon assuming office in 2009, President Obama lifted the temporal restriction imposed by President Bush and permitted the NIH to “support and conduct responsible, scientifically worthy human stem cell research, including human embryonic stem cell research, to the extent permitted by law.” Exec. Order 13,505, 74 Fed.Reg. 10,667, 10,667 (2009). The NIH, after notice-and-comment rulemaking, then issued the 2009 Guidelines, 74 Fed.Reg. 32,170-32,175 (July 7, 2009), which are currently in effect. In the Guidelines, the NIH noted “funding of the derivation of stem cells from human embryos is prohibited by ... the Dickey-Wicker Amendment.” Id. at 32,175/2. The Guidelines further addressed Dickey-Wicker as follows:
Since 1999, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has consistently interpreted [Dickey-Wicker] as not applicable to research using [ESCs], because [ESCs] are not embryos as defined by Section 509. This longstanding interpretation has been left unchanged by Congress, which has annually reenacted the Dickey [sic] Amendment with full knowledge that HHS has been funding [ESC] research since 2001. These guidelines therefore recognize the distinction, accepted by Congress, between the derivation of stem cells from an embryo that results in the embryo’s destruction, for which Federal funding is prohibited, and research involving [ESCs] that does not involve an embryo nor result in an embryo’s destruction, for which Federal funding is permitted.
Id. at 32,173/2.
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Opinion for the Court filed by Circuit Judge GINSBURG.
Dissenting opinion filed by Circuit Judge HENDERSON.
GINSBURG, Circuit Judge:
Two scientists brought this suit to enjoin the National Institutes of Health from funding research using human embryonic stem cells (ESCs) pursuant to the NIH’s 2009 Guidelines. The district court granted their motion for a preliminary injunction, concluding they were likely to succeed in showing the Guidelines violated the Dickey-Wicker Amendment, an appropriations rider that bars federal funding for [390] research in which a human embryo is destroyed. We conclude the plaintiffs are unlikely to prevail because Dickey-Wicker is ambiguous and the NIH seems reasonably to have concluded that, although Dickey-Wicker bars funding for the destructive act of deriving an ESC from an embryo, it does not prohibit funding a research project in which an ESC will be used. We therefore vacate the preliminary injunction.
I. Background
As we explained at an earlier stage of this case, stem cells have the potential of yielding treatments for a wide range of afflictions because scientists can cause them to function as any one of a number of specific types of cell. 610 F.3d 69, 70 (2010) 0Sherley I). We there considered two different classes of human stem cells: adult stem cells, which are somewhat specialized, and ESCs, which are pluripotent, meaning they can develop into nearly any of the 200 types of human cell. In addition to these two established categories, we note the recent development of induced pluripotent stem cells, which are adult stem cells reprogrammed to a stage of development at which they are pluripotent. There is some debate as to which type of stem cell holds more promise of yielding therapeutic applications.
Adult stem cells can be found in the various tissues and organs of the human body. ESCs, by contrast, can be found only in a human embryo; isolating an ESC requires removing the “inner cell mass” of the embryo, a process that destroys the embryo. The stem cells among the 30 or so cells in the inner cell mass are then placed in a culture, where they will divide continuously without differentiating, thus forming a “stem cell line” of identical cells. An individual ESC may be removed from the line without disrupting either the multiplication process or the durability of the line. The removed cell may then be used in a research project — either by the investigator who extracted it or by another — in which the ESC will be caused to develop into the type of cell pertinent to that research. Most stem cell lines are maintained by one or another of several research universities, which make them available for scientific use, usually for a small fee.
The plaintiffs in this case, Drs. James Sherley and Theresa Deisher, are scientists who use only adult stem cells in their research. They contend the NIH has, by funding research projects using ESCs, violated the Dickey-Wicker Amendment, which the Congress has included in the annual appropriation for the Department of Health and Human Services each year since 1996. Dickey-Wicker prohibits the NIH from funding:
(1) the creation of a human embryo or embryos for research purposes; or (2) research in which a human embryo or embryos are destroyed, discarded, or knowingly subjected to risk of injury or death greater than that allowed for research on fetuses in útero under 45 C.F.R. 46.204(b) and section 498(b) of the Public Health Service Act (42 U.S.C. 289g(b)).
Pub.L. No. 111-117, § 509(a)(2), 123 Stat. 3034, 3280-81.
In 1996, when the Congress first passed Dickey-Wicker, scientists had taken steps to isolate ESCs but had not yet been able to stabilize them for research in the laboratory. The historical record suggests the Congress passed the Amendment chiefly to preclude President Clinton from acting upon an NIH report recommending federal funding for research using embryos that had been created for the purpose of in vitro fertilization. See O. Carter Snead, Science, Public Bioethics, and the Problem [391] of Integration, 43 U.C. Davis L.Rev. 1529, 1546 (2010). Dickey-Wicker became directly relevant to ESCs only in 1998, when researchers at the University of Wisconsin succeeded in generating a stable line of ESCs, which they made available to investigators who might apply for NIH funding.
For that reason, on January 15, 1999, the General Counsel of the Department of Health and Human Services issued a memorandum addressing whether Dickey-Wicker permits federal funding of research using ESCs that had been derived before the funded project began; she concluded such funding is permissible because ESCs are not “embryos.” After notice and comment, the NIH issued funding guidelines consistent with this opinion, see 65 Fed.Reg. 51,976 (2000), but the NIH did not fund any ESC research project while President Clinton was in office.
Early in 2001, President Bush directed the NIH not to fund any project pursuant to President Clinton’s policy; later that year he decided funding for ESC research would be limited to projects using the approximately 60 then-extant cell lines derived from “embryos that ha[d] already been destroyed.” See 37 Weekly Comp. Pres. Doc. 1149, 1151 (Aug. 9, 2001); see also Exec. Order No. 13,435, 72 Fed.Reg. 34,591 (2007); Doe v. Obama, 631 F.3d 157, 159 (4th Cir.2011). Meanwhile, the Congress continued to reenact Dickey-Wicker each year of the Bush Administration.
Upon assuming office in 2009, President Obama lifted the temporal restriction imposed by President Bush and permitted the NIH to “support and conduct responsible, scientifically worthy human stem cell research, including human embryonic stem cell research, to the extent permitted by law.” Exec. Order 13,505, 74 Fed.Reg. 10,667, 10,667 (2009). The NIH, after notice-and-comment rulemaking, then issued the 2009 Guidelines, 74 Fed.Reg. 32,170-32,175 (July 7, 2009), which are currently in effect. In the Guidelines, the NIH noted “funding of the derivation of stem cells from human embryos is prohibited by ... the Dickey-Wicker Amendment.” Id. at 32,175/2. The Guidelines further addressed Dickey-Wicker as follows:
Since 1999, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has consistently interpreted [Dickey-Wicker] as not applicable to research using [ESCs], because [ESCs] are not embryos as defined by Section 509. This longstanding interpretation has been left unchanged by Congress, which has annually reenacted the Dickey [sic] Amendment with full knowledge that HHS has been funding [ESC] research since 2001. These guidelines therefore recognize the distinction, accepted by Congress, between the derivation of stem cells from an embryo that results in the embryo’s destruction, for which Federal funding is prohibited, and research involving [ESCs] that does not involve an embryo nor result in an embryo’s destruction, for which Federal funding is permitted.
Id. at 32,173/2.
In place of President Bush’s temporal limitation, the 2009 Guidelines instituted specific ethical restrictions upon ESC research funded by the NIH: Such research may be conducted only upon stem cell lines derived from embryos that “were created using in vitro fertilization for reproductive purposes and were no longer needed for this purpose,” and that “were donated by individuals who sought reproductive treatment ... who gave voluntary written consent for the human embryos to be used for research purposes,” and who were not paid therefor. Id. at 32,174/2-3. Moreover, the research may use stem cell lines derived from an embryo donated after the effective date of the Guidelines only if the [392] in vitro clinic had fully informed the donor of all possible options for disposing of the embryo and had taken other specified procedural steps to separate reproductive treatment from donation. Id.
After the 2009 Guidelines were issued, the Congress once again reenacted Dickey-Wicker as part of the appropriations bill for fiscal year 2010. The Congress has not enacted an appropriations bill for FY 2011, adopting instead a series of continuing resolutions that have carried Dickey-Wicker forward to the present. Neither party to this case has suggested the Congress might modify Dickey-Wicker for the remainder of FY 2011.
Drs. Sherley and Deisher and a number of others filed this suit in August 2009 and moved the district court for a preliminary injunction. Instead, the district court granted the Government’s motion to dismiss the suit for want of standing. The plaintiffs appealed and we reversed in part, holding the doctors alone had standing because they competed with ESC researchers for NIH funding. Sherley I, 610 F.3d at 72-74.
On remand, the district court granted the doctors’ motion and issued a preliminary injunction providing “that defendants and their officers, employees, and agents are enjoined from implementing, applying, or taking any action whatsoever pursuant to the [2009 Guidelines], or otherwise funding research involving human embryonic stem cells as contemplated in the Guidelines.” Upon the Government’s motion, this court stayed the preliminary injunction pending appeal thereof. In the meantime, proceedings have continued in. the district court, where the parties have cross-moved for summary judgment. The only question before us now, therefore, is the propriety of the preliminary injunction.
II. Analysis
A preliminary injunction is “an extraordinary remedy that may only be awarded upon a clear showing that the plaintiff is entitled to such relief.” Winter v. Natural Res. Def. Council, Inc., 555 U.S. 7, 129 S.Ct. 365, 376, 172 L.Ed.2d 249 (2008). “A plaintiff seeking a preliminary injunction must establish [1] that he is likely to succeed on the merits, [2] that he is likely to suffer irreparable harm in the absence of preliminary relief, [3] that the balance of equities tips in his favor, and [4] that an injunction is in the public interest.” Id. at 374.
We pause to consider how we are to treat these four factors. Before Winter, this court and others had allowed that a strong showing on one factor could make up for a weaker showing on another. See Davenport v. Int’l Bhd. of Teamsters, 166 F.3d 356, 360-61 (D.C.Cir.1999); see also Winter, 129 S.Ct. at 392 (Ginsburg, J., dissenting) (“courts have evaluated claims for equitable relief on a ‘sliding scale,’ sometimes awarding relief based on a lower likelihood of harm when the likelihood of success is very high”). In Davis v. Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., 571 F.3d 1288, 1292 (2009), we noted that Winter “could be read to create a more demanding burden” than the sliding-scale analysis requires although, as we there observed, Justice Ginsburg does not think so, see Winter, 129 S.Ct. at 392. In Davis, however, we did not have to resolve the issue because we would have reached the same conclusion under either approach. 571 F.3d at 1292.
In their concurring opinion in Davis, two judges expressed the view that “under the Supreme Court’s precedents, a movant cannot obtain a preliminary injunction without showing both a likelihood of success and a likelihood of irreparable harm, among other things.” Id. at 1296. They [393] noted that the Winter Court seemed to treat the four factors as independent requirements and specifically to reject the Ninth Circuit’s statement that a strong likelihood of success on the merits lessens the movant’s burden to showing merely a “possibility” rather than a “likelihood” of irreparable harm. Id. (citing Winter, 129 S.Ct. at 374-76); see also Nken v. Holder, - U.S. -, 129 S.Ct. 1749, 1763, 173 L.Ed.2d 550 (2009) (Kennedy, J., concurring) (“When considering success on the merits and irreparable harm, courts cannot dispense with the required showing of one simply because there is a strong likelihood of the other”).
Like our colleagues, we read Winter at least to suggest if not to hold “that a likelihood of success is an independent, free-standing requirement for a preliminary injunction,” Davis, 571 F.3d at 1296 (concurring opinion). Although the Fourth Circuit has read the same case to similar effect, see Real Truth About Obama, Inc. v. FEC, 575 F.3d 342, 347 (2009), other circuits do not understand it to preclude continuing adherence to the sliding-scale approach, see Alliance for the Wild Rockies v. Cottrell, 632 F.3d 1127, 1130-35 (9th Cir.2011); Citigroup Global Mkts., Inc. v. VCG Special Opportunities Master Fund Ltd., 598 F.3d 30, 35-38 (2d Cir. 2010); Hoosier Energy Rural Elec. Coop. v. John Hancock Life Ins. Co., 582 F.3d 721, 725 (7th Cir.2009). We need not wade into this circuit split today because, as in Davis, as detailed below, in this case a preliminary injunction is not appropriate even under the less demanding sliding-scale analysis.
We review the district court’s balancing of the four factors for abuse of discretion. Davis, 571 F.3d at 1291. Insofar as the inquiry depends upon a question of law, our review is, of course, de novo. Id.; Ark. Dairy Coop. Ass’n v. USDA, 573 F.3d 815, 821 (D.C.Cir.2009). In this case, our de novo review is central to the plaintiffs’ likelihood of success on the merits, see City of Las Vegas v. Lujan, 891 F.2d 927, 931-32 (D.C.Cir.1989), which success depends upon an issue of statutory interpretation.
A. Likelihood of Success on the Merits
In entering the preliminary injunction, the district court concluded the plaintiff doctors are likely to succeed in demonstrating the 2009 Guidelines are inconsistent with the limits upon funding in the Dickey-Wicker Amendment. 704 F.Supp.2d 63, 70-72 (2010). We approach this issue under the familiar two-step framework of Chevron U.S.A., Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., 467 U.S. 837, 842-43, 104 S.Ct. 2778, 81 L.Ed.2d 694 (1984): If the Congress has “directly spoken to the precise question at issue,” then we must “give effect to the unambiguously expressed intent of Congress”; if instead the “statute is silent or ambiguous with respect to the specific issue,” then we defer to the administering agency’s interpretation as long as it reflects “a permissible construction of the statute.”
1. Chevron step one
We begin our review, of course, by looking to the text of Dickey-Wicker, which bars federal funding specifically for “research in which a human embryo or embryos are destroyed, discarded, or knowingly subjected to risk of injury or death greater than that allowed for research on fetuses in útero” under the Public Health Service Act and a particular regulation of the Department of Health and Human Services. The district court held, and the plaintiffs argue on appeal, this provision unambiguously bars funding for any project using an ESC. They reason [394] that, because an embryo had to be destroyed in order to yield an ESC, any later research project that uses an ESC is necessarily “research” in which the embryo is destroyed. For its part, the Government argues the “text is in no way an unambiguous ban on research using embryonic stem cells” because Dickey-Wicker is written in the present tense, addressing research “in which” embryos “are” destroyed, not research “for which” embryos “were destroyed.”
The use of the present tense in a statute strongly suggests it does not extend to past actions. The Dictionary Act provides “unless the context indicates otherwise ... words used in the present tense include the future as well as the present.” 1 U.S.C. § 1. As the Supreme Court has observed, that provision implies “the present tense generally does not include the past.” Carr v. United States, — U.S. —, 130 S.Ct. 2229, 2236, 176 L.Ed.2d 1152 (2010). The context here does not, as our dissenting colleague would have it, indicate a different understanding. To the contrary, as amicus the University of California urges in its brief, and as the Government emphasized at oral argument, NIH funding decisions are forward-looking, requiring the NIH to “determine whether what is proposed to be funded meets with its requirements.” Therefore, a grant application to support research that includes the derivation of stem cells would have to be rejected.