GINSBURG, Circuit Judge:
This case presents a novel and difficult legal issue in the context of the mounting volume of litigation relating to deaths or injuries caused by exposure to asbestos products.
We are asked to decide whether manifestation of any asbestos-related disease (in this case, asbestosis) triggers the running of the statute of limitations on all separate, distinct, and later-manifested diseases (here, malignant mesothelioma, an extremely lethal form of cancer) engendered by the same asbestos exposure.
We hold that time to commence litigation does not begin to run on a separate and distinct disease until that disease becomes manifest.
I. Introduction
A.
The Facts
Beginning in 1941, Henry J. Wilson was steadily employed as an insulation worker at various construction sites in the metropolitan Washington, D. C. area. As an inte
gral element of this employment, Wilson regularly handled and was otherwise exposed to asbestos and asbestos products.
On February 14, 1973, Wilson was x-rayed as part of his local union’s routine program instituted to determine which workers, if any, had contracted asbestosis.
Evaluation of these x-rays revealed that Wilson was indeed suffering from “mild asbestosis.”
Following his receipt of this diagnosis,
Wilson began a new job, still in the insulation trade, but involving little, if any, exposure to asbestos.
Subsequent to 1973, Wilson’s health rapidly deteriorated. He suffered two heart attacks in June 1974 and a collapsed lung in February 1975, and was hospitalized on each occasion. Because of these episodes and on the advice of his physician, Wilson retired.
Complaining of sharp pains in his chest, Wilson was again hospitalized in February 1978. On this occasion, Wilson was diagnosed as having mesothelioma, a cancer of the mesothelial cells
with a poor prognosis for recovery. Wilson died on May 17,1978.
B.
The District Court Proceedings
On May 16, 1979, just short of one year after Wilson’s death, his widow, Blannie S. Wilson (“Appellant”),
instituted the instant diversity action. Named as defendants (collectively “Johns-Manville”)
were designers, manufacturers, and distributors of as
bestos and asbestos products, which, allegedly, Wilson frequently used, installed, removed, or otherwise encountered. Proceeding under the District of Columbia’s
Survival
and Wrongful Death
statutes, Appellant asserted that Johns-Manville’s actions were the direct and proximate cause of her husband’s pulmonary illnesses and death. Various theories of product liability, inclüding negligence, breach of express and implied warranty, and strict liability in tort, formed the basis of Appellant’s claim for compensatory and punitive damages.
After extensive discovery by the parties, Johns-Manville moved for summary judgment on both statutory counts. Johns-Man-ville asserted that Henry Wilson had one, and only one, indivisible cause of action for all past, present, and future injuries resulting from his exposure to asbestos products. This cause of action, Johns-Manville claimed, accrued, at the latest, when Wilson first knew or should have known that he was suffering from any asbestos-related disease,
i.e.,
in February 1973, when Wilson was diagnosed as suffering from asbestosis. Therefore, Johns-Manville concluded, the applicable three-year statute of limitations
barred the 1979 Survival action. Furthermore, Johns-Manville argued, Appellant’s Wrongful Death action was also time-barred; as a wholly derivative claim, Johns-Manville maintained, a Wrongful Death action may not proceed unless the decedent at the time of his death could have initiated a timely action for personal injuries had he lived.
Without a written opinion or memorandum explanation,
but apparently with some insecurity,
the district court granted Johns-Manville’s motion and dismissed Appellant’s complaint with prejudice.
This appeal followed.
II. Analysis
The applicable statute of limitations, D.C. Code § 12-301(8),
provides that a Survival claim “may not be brought after [3 years] from the time the right to maintain the action accrues.” Appellant’s Survival claim, therefore, is timely only if Henry Wilson had a right of action which “accrued” after May 17, 1976.
A.
The Discovery Rule
The accrual date of a claim for relief based on a disease with a long incubation period, such as asbestosis or mesothelioma,
is an issue on which judicial opinion is in flux. Some courts adhere to the traditional view that “ ‘the cause of action accrues at the time of invasion of [plaintiff’s] body.’ ”
Steinhardt v. Johns-Manville Corp.,
54 N.Y.2d 1008, 1010, 430 N.E.2d 1297, 1299, 446 N.Y.S.2d 244, 246 (1981) (quoting
Thornton v. Roosevelt Hospital,
47 N.Y.2d 780, 781, 391 N.E.2d 1002, 1003, 417 N.Y. S.2d 920, 921 (1979)).
Other courts
employ the “discovery” rule under which a
“cause of action accrues when the plaintiff knows or through the exercise of due diligence should have known of the injury.”
See Burns v. Bell,
409 A.2d 614, 617 (D.C. App.1979).
Johns-Manville points out that to date “the District of Columbia Court of Appeals has not extended the ‘discovery’ rule to cases beyond the area of professional malpractice.”
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GINSBURG, Circuit Judge:
This case presents a novel and difficult legal issue in the context of the mounting volume of litigation relating to deaths or injuries caused by exposure to asbestos products.
We are asked to decide whether manifestation of any asbestos-related disease (in this case, asbestosis) triggers the running of the statute of limitations on all separate, distinct, and later-manifested diseases (here, malignant mesothelioma, an extremely lethal form of cancer) engendered by the same asbestos exposure.
We hold that time to commence litigation does not begin to run on a separate and distinct disease until that disease becomes manifest.
I. Introduction
A.
The Facts
Beginning in 1941, Henry J. Wilson was steadily employed as an insulation worker at various construction sites in the metropolitan Washington, D. C. area. As an inte
gral element of this employment, Wilson regularly handled and was otherwise exposed to asbestos and asbestos products.
On February 14, 1973, Wilson was x-rayed as part of his local union’s routine program instituted to determine which workers, if any, had contracted asbestosis.
Evaluation of these x-rays revealed that Wilson was indeed suffering from “mild asbestosis.”
Following his receipt of this diagnosis,
Wilson began a new job, still in the insulation trade, but involving little, if any, exposure to asbestos.
Subsequent to 1973, Wilson’s health rapidly deteriorated. He suffered two heart attacks in June 1974 and a collapsed lung in February 1975, and was hospitalized on each occasion. Because of these episodes and on the advice of his physician, Wilson retired.
Complaining of sharp pains in his chest, Wilson was again hospitalized in February 1978. On this occasion, Wilson was diagnosed as having mesothelioma, a cancer of the mesothelial cells
with a poor prognosis for recovery. Wilson died on May 17,1978.
B.
The District Court Proceedings
On May 16, 1979, just short of one year after Wilson’s death, his widow, Blannie S. Wilson (“Appellant”),
instituted the instant diversity action. Named as defendants (collectively “Johns-Manville”)
were designers, manufacturers, and distributors of as
bestos and asbestos products, which, allegedly, Wilson frequently used, installed, removed, or otherwise encountered. Proceeding under the District of Columbia’s
Survival
and Wrongful Death
statutes, Appellant asserted that Johns-Manville’s actions were the direct and proximate cause of her husband’s pulmonary illnesses and death. Various theories of product liability, inclüding negligence, breach of express and implied warranty, and strict liability in tort, formed the basis of Appellant’s claim for compensatory and punitive damages.
After extensive discovery by the parties, Johns-Manville moved for summary judgment on both statutory counts. Johns-Man-ville asserted that Henry Wilson had one, and only one, indivisible cause of action for all past, present, and future injuries resulting from his exposure to asbestos products. This cause of action, Johns-Manville claimed, accrued, at the latest, when Wilson first knew or should have known that he was suffering from any asbestos-related disease,
i.e.,
in February 1973, when Wilson was diagnosed as suffering from asbestosis. Therefore, Johns-Manville concluded, the applicable three-year statute of limitations
barred the 1979 Survival action. Furthermore, Johns-Manville argued, Appellant’s Wrongful Death action was also time-barred; as a wholly derivative claim, Johns-Manville maintained, a Wrongful Death action may not proceed unless the decedent at the time of his death could have initiated a timely action for personal injuries had he lived.
Without a written opinion or memorandum explanation,
but apparently with some insecurity,
the district court granted Johns-Manville’s motion and dismissed Appellant’s complaint with prejudice.
This appeal followed.
II. Analysis
The applicable statute of limitations, D.C. Code § 12-301(8),
provides that a Survival claim “may not be brought after [3 years] from the time the right to maintain the action accrues.” Appellant’s Survival claim, therefore, is timely only if Henry Wilson had a right of action which “accrued” after May 17, 1976.
A.
The Discovery Rule
The accrual date of a claim for relief based on a disease with a long incubation period, such as asbestosis or mesothelioma,
is an issue on which judicial opinion is in flux. Some courts adhere to the traditional view that “ ‘the cause of action accrues at the time of invasion of [plaintiff’s] body.’ ”
Steinhardt v. Johns-Manville Corp.,
54 N.Y.2d 1008, 1010, 430 N.E.2d 1297, 1299, 446 N.Y.S.2d 244, 246 (1981) (quoting
Thornton v. Roosevelt Hospital,
47 N.Y.2d 780, 781, 391 N.E.2d 1002, 1003, 417 N.Y. S.2d 920, 921 (1979)).
Other courts
employ the “discovery” rule under which a
“cause of action accrues when the plaintiff knows or through the exercise of due diligence should have known of the injury.”
See Burns v. Bell,
409 A.2d 614, 617 (D.C. App.1979).
Johns-Manville points out that to date “the District of Columbia Court of Appeals has not extended the ‘discovery’ rule to cases beyond the area of professional malpractice.”
We are persuaded, however, that, if faced with the issue, the District of Columbia courts would apply the discovery rule to latent disease cases.
In
Burns,
the District of Columbia Court of Appeals held that the discovery rule applies to
all
medical malpractice claims. 409 A.2d at 617.
Nothing in the court’s opinion implies that the rule should be limited to claims for relief alleging professional malpractice.
To the contrary, the court indicated that malpractice cases are merely examples of tort claims in which the fact of injury may not be readily discernible.
With respect to an injury that was not immediately apparent, the
Burns
court characterized the “time of the act” rule as “unduly harsh,”
id.
at 616, and the discovery rule as “just and equitable.”
Id.
at 617.
We note too that the District of Columbia Court of Appeals, in analogous cases, has followed the trend of decisions away from traditional judge-made rules that operate harshly or are not suited to changed conditions.
In latent disease cases the trend is clearly toward application of the discovery rule.
Further, federal district judges, called upon to apply District of Columbia law in diversity suits, have employed the discovery rule in latent injury cases.
Fear-son v. Johns-Manville Sales Corp.,
525 F.Supp. 671, 674 (D.D.C.1981);
Grigsby v. Sterling Drug, Inc.,
428 F.Supp. 242, 243 (D.D.C.1975),
aff’d mem.,
543 F.2d 417 (D.C. Cir.1976).
Finally, we believe the discovery rule is ■sensibly based.
Courts have long recognized that “[the] policy of repose, designed to protect defendants, is frequently outweighed ... where the interests of justice require vindication of the plaintiffs rights.”
Burnett v. New York Central Railroad,
380 U.S. 424, 428, 85 S.Ct. 1050, 1054, 13 L.Ed.2d 941 (1965). Latent disease claims fit comfortably within this generalization. As Justice Rutledge observed, application of the invasion-of-the-body rule to such cases, which involve “unknown and inherently unknowable” harm, would provide the injured party with only a “delusive” remedy.
Urie v. Thompson,
337 U.S. 163, 169, 69 S.Ct. 1018, 1024, 93 L.Ed. 1282 (1949).
See also Ricciuti v. Voltarc Tubes, Inc.,
277 F.2d 809, 813 (2d Cir. 1960) (time-of-the-act rule “would nullify any right to recover for many serious but slowly and insidiously developing diseases”);
Harig,
284 Md. at 80, 394 A.2d at 305.
Johns-Manville principally argues, however, that even if the discovery rule is applicable to the instant case, Appellant’s claim is nonetheless barred by the three-year limitations period. Henry Wilson, Johns-Man-ville urgés most strenuously, had only one indivisible cause of action for asbestos-related injuries and that cause of action accrued five years before he “discovered” that he had cancer; it accrued in 1973 when Wilson “discovered” he was suffering from “mild asbestosis.” We now turn to that central contention.
B.
Distinct Illnesses as Separate Causes of Action
Johns-Manville focuses on the alleged wrongful conduct and asserts that once some harm is apparent, a claim accrues not only for harm then manifest, but for all harm that may eventuate in the future as a result of the same conduct. Johns-Man-ville’s theory is that Henry Wilson’s claim ripened no later than February 1973 when he was diagnosed as having “mild asbestosis.” Within three years of that diagnosis, Johns-Manville reasons, Wilson could have instituted a personal injury action seeking damages, not only for asbestosis, but for consequences that might develop later, including separate and distinct illnesses such as mesothelioma
or another form of cancer. Had Wilson sued between 1973 and 1976, and then attempted to return to court after the February 1978 malignant me-sothelioma diagnosis, he would have been blocked, Johns-Manville asserts, by the well-established rule that a claim or cause of action may not be split.
See generally
Restatement (Second) of Judgments §§ 24-26 (1982). It follows, Johns-Manville concludes, that Wilson’s mesothelioma claim is similarly barred when, as occurred here, he simply sat on his right to sue and did not institute any tort action between February 1973 and February 1976. In essence, Johns-Manville argues, Wilson did not have the option to waive tort recovery for asbestosis, and sue for a lethal cancer if and when such a condition developed. We disagree.
Preliminarily, we note that we need not and do not decide whether Johns-Manville’s initial premise is correct,
i.e.,
whether judgment on a claim for asbestosis pursued between 1973 and 1976 would have precluded a subsequent claim based on the 1978 me-sothelioma diagnosis.
It suffices to point out that res judicata (claim preclusion) doctrine and policy would control the decision of that question. But the issue before us is not properly decided under the law govern
ing judgments. Rules of res judicata (claim preclusion) and collateral estoppel (issue preclusion) concern the preclusive effects of
former adjudication.
Here, there has been no former adjudication, no prior action resulting in. a judgment to be given effect in a subsequent action. In shaping its position largely on the basis of decisions concerning limitations on the opportunity
in a second action
to litigate claims that were litigated, or could have been litigated, in a prior action,
Johns-Manville has misdirected its attention and argument. This case requires us to focus, not on judgments and their preclusive effects, but on statutes of limita-
tions and the policies they implicate in personal injury actions.
We therefore consider below the appropriate delineation of the claim or cause of action in suit in the relevant context.
“Statutes of limitation find their justification in necessity and convenience rather than in logic. They represent expedients, rather than principles.”
Chase Securities Corp. v. Donaldson,
325 U.S. 304, 314, 65 S.Ct. 1137, 1142, 89 L.Ed. 1628 (1945).
Two considerations, particularly, motivate legislation placing time limitations on the commencement of litigation.
The first,
which may be designated
evidentiary,
relates to “the search for truth [which] may be seriously impaired by the loss of evidence, whether by death or disappearance of witnesses, fading memories, disappearance of documents, or otherwise.”
The second,
repose,
concerns the potential defendant’s interests in security against stale claims and in planning for the future without the uncertainty inherent in potential liability
In the case at hand, these considerations pull in opposite directions. Repose, beyond question, is best served by Johns-Manville’s broad definition of the “cause of action” at stake. But in situations involving the risk of manifestation of a latent disease, unlike the mine run of litigation, the evidentiary consideration counsels narrower delineation of the dimensions of a claim. Key issues to be litigated in a latent disease case are the existence of the disease, its proximate cause, and the resultant damage. Evidence relating to these issues tends to develop, rather than disappear, as time passes.
Looking beyond repose and evidentiary considerations, we take into account the interests generally involved in personal injury and death cases: plaintiff’s in obtaining at least adequate compensation, defendant’s in paying no more than that. Integrating these two, the community seeks to advance, through the system of adjudication, relief that will sufficiently, but not excessively, compensate persons for injuries occasioned by the tortious acts of others. In latent disease cases, this community interest would be significantly undermined by a judge-made rule that upon manifestation of any harm, the injured party must then, if ever, sue for all harms the same exposure may (or may not) occasion some time in the future.
The traditional American rule,
adopted in the District of Columbia
is that recovery of damages based on future consequences may be had only if such. consequences are “reasonably certain.” \Recovery of damages for speculative or conjectural future consequences is not permitted. To meet the “reasonably certain” standard, courts have generally required plaintiffs to prove that it is more likely than not (a greater than 50% chance) that the projected consequence will occur. If such proof is made, the alleged future effect may be treated as certain to happen and the injured party may be awarded full compensation for it; if the proof does not establish a greater than 50% chance, the injured party’s award must be limited to damages for harm already manifest.
In view of the “reasonably certain” standard, it appears that Johns-Manville is urging for cases of this sort (in which cancer is diagnosed years after asbestosis becomes manifest) more than a time-bar; it is urging, in essence, that there can
never
be a recovery for cancer unless (1) a lawsuit is filed within three years of the asbestosis diagnosis, and (2) cancer becomes manifest during the course of that lawsuit. For it is altogether likely that had Wilson, upon receiving the “mild asbestosis” diagnosis, sought to recover for a cancer which might (or might not) develop, Johns-Manville would have argued forcibly that the probability of such a development was far less than 50%, and was therefore too speculative, conjectural, uncertain to support a damage award.
Concern for judicial economy also influences our decision. Upon diagnosis of an initial illness, such as asbestosis, the injured party may not need or desire judicial relief. Other sources, such as workers’ compensation or private insurance, may provide adequate recompense for the initial ailment. If no further disease ensues, the injured party would have no cause to litigate. However, if such a person is told that another, more serious disease may manifest itself later on, and that a remedy in court will be barred unless an anticipatory action is filed currently, there will be a powerful incentive to go to court, for the consequence of a wait-and-see approach to the commencement of litigation may be too severe to risk. Moreover, a plaintiff’s representative in such a case may be motivated to protract and delay once in court so that the full story of his client’s condition will be known before the case is set for trial.
| Our consideration of this appeal persuades us that a model or rule acceptable for more common personal injury actions may not be appropriate in latent disease cases.
. With respect to the statute of limitations issue before us, we conclude that a potential defendant’s interest in repose is counterbalanced and outweighed by other factors, (including evidentiary considerations, securing fair compensation for. serious harm, and deterring uneconomical anticipatory lawsuits. We therefore hold that the diagnosis of,“mild asbestosis’' received by Henry Wilson in February 1973 did not
start the clock on his right to sue for the separate and distinct disease, mesothelioma, attributable to the same asbestos exposure, but not manifest until February 1978. Blannie Wilson’s action, we decide, to the extent that it seeks recovery based on me-sothelioma, from which her husband suffered and died, was timely filed.
Conclusion
For the reasons stated, we hold that Appellant’s Survival and Wrongful Death action was timely.
We therefore reverse the district court’s summary judgment order dismissing the complaint and remand this ease for further proceedings.
It is so ordered.