MEMORANDUM OF DECISION
YOUNG, United States District Judge
I. INTRODUCTION
On February 25, 2016, this Court granted Rigoberto Ramirez’s (“Ramirez”) motion to vacate his sentence under 28 U.S.C. § 2255, mandating his immediate release from custody. Elec. Clerk’s Notes, ECF No. 137. This memorandum explains the Court’s reasoning in doing so.
A. Ramirez’s Sentencing and Direct Appeal
In 2011, Ramirez pled guilty to several drug-related charges. Elec. Clerk’s Notes, ECF No. 41; see United States v. Ramirez, 708 F.3d 295, 298 (2013) (“Ramirez I”). Based on the algorithm established by the United States Sentencing Commission Guidelines (“Guidelines”), the U.S. Probation Office’s pre-sentence report (“PSR”) initially determined that Ramirez’s offense [293]*293level was 15 and that his criminal history points placed him in Criminal History Category V, resulting' in a Guidelines sentencing range of 37 to 46 months. Ramirez Pre-sentence Report (“PSR”) 12, 29; Ramirez I, 708 F.3d at 298. The U.S. Probation Office also determined that two of Ramirez’s prior convictions qualified as “crime[s] of violence” under Guidelines Section 4B1.2(a), making Ramirez a “career offender” subject to a sentence enhancement under Section 4B1.1 of the Guidelines. PSR 12; Ramirez I, 708 F.3d at 299. This designation necessarily bumped him up to Criminal History Category VI. The PSR calculated Ramirez’s career-offender total offense level to be 31, which, together with his Criminal History Category VI, led to a Guidelines range of 188 to 235 months. PSR 12, 29, 44; U.S.S.G. § 4B 1.2(a). The Court adopted the PSR’s Guidelines calculations and sentenced Ramirez to 156 months (13 years) in prison. Tr. Disposition Rigoberto Ramirez 9:6-8, ECF No. 78; Elec. Clerk’s Notes, ECF No. 71.
Ramirez appealed his sentence, arguing that one of his prior convictions did not qualify as a “crime of violence” under Section 4B1.2(a).1 Ramirez I, 708 F.3d at 300. The First Circuit concluded that this Court had not erred in applying the career-offender enhancement, and that Ramirez qualified as career offender solely under the career-offender “residual clause” in Section 4B1.2(a)(2) of the Guidelines (the “Guidelines’ Residual Clause”). Id. at 307. The First Circuit, however, remanded the case for resentencing on the basis that the record was unclear with respect to this Court’s imposition of an unrelated sentence enhancement. Id at 310.
At Ramirez’s resentencing on April 29, 2013, the Court determined Ramirez’s career offender total offense level to be 29, which, Coupled with his unchanged Criminal History Category VI, resulted in a Guidelines range of 151 to 188 months. Order. Am. J. (“Order”) 1, 7, ECF No. 102. The Court amended the prior judgment and resentenced Ramirez to 12 years (144 months), which was below the career-offender-enhanced Guidelines range. Id. at 9. Ramirez appealed the amended judgment, first to the First Circuit, which affirmed the Court’s resentencing,2 United States v. Ramirez, No. 13-1585, slip op. (1st Cir. June 23, 2014) (“Ramirez II”), ECF No. Ill, and then, to the Supreme Court, Letter Supreme Court United States Clerk, ECF No. 113. The Supreme Court denied certiorari on October 20, 2014. Ramirez v. United States, — U.S. -, 135 S.Ct. 424, 190 L.Ed.2d 307 (2014).
B. Developments After the Supreme Court Denied Certiorari
The year after the Supreme Court denied Ramirez certiorari, it decided Johnson v. United States, — U.S. -, 135 S.Ct. 2551, 192 L.Ed.2d 569 (2015). In Johnson, the named defendant had been sentenced under the Armed Career Criminal Act (“ACCA”), 18 U.S.C. § 924(e), which imposes sentencing enhancements on individuals convicted under 18 U.S.C. § 922(g) (felon in possession of a firearm). See id. at 2556. If an individual convicted under Section 922(g) has three or more prior convic[294]*294tions for a “serious drug offense” or a “violent felony,” the ACCA increases his sentencing range from a maximum of 10 years in prison, to a minimum of 15 years in prison. 18 U.S.C. § 924(e)(1); Johnson, 135 S.Ct. at 2555. The ACCA defines “violent felony” as “any crime punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year” that “(i) has as an element the use, attempted use, or threatened use of physical force against the person of another; or (ii) is burglary, arson, or extortion, involves use of explosives, or otherwise involves conduct that presents a serious potential risk of physical injury to another[.]” 18 U.S.C. § 924(e)(2)(B) (emphasis added). The underlined text is known as the “residual clause” of the ACCA, Johnson, 135 S.Ct. at 2556, and is expressed in haec verba as the Guidelines’ career-offender residual clause. Ramirez I, 708 F.3d at 306; U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2(a)(2).
In Johnson, the Supreme Court concluded that the inquiry required to establish whether a certain offense fell under the ACCA’s residual clause “denie[d] fair notice to defendants and invite[dj arbitrary enforcement by judges.” 135 S.Ct. at 2557. Prior judicial attempts that failed to craft a “principled and objective standard out of the residual clause” convinced the Supreme Court that “imposing an increased sentence under the residual clause of the [ACCA] violate[d] the Constitution’s guarantee of due process.” Id. at 2558, 2563.
C. Ramirez’s Section 2255 Petition
Following Johnson, on August 24, 2015, Ramirez filed the current motion to vacate his sentence under 28 U.S.C. § 2255, arguing that the Supreme Court’s invalidation of the ACCA residual clause requires the conclusion that the Guidelines’ identically worded residual clause also violates due process, and that this conclusion ought retroactively apply to Ramirez’s collateral attack on his sentencing. Mot. Vacate, ECF No. 119; Addendum Supp. 28 U.S.C. § 2255 Mot. 2, ECF No. 120; Def.’s Reply Mem. Law Supp. Mot. § 2255 Vacate, Set Aside, Correct Sentence Person Federal Custody (“Def.’s Mem.”) 3, ECF No. 134.
The government opposed Ramirez’s petition. Gov’t’s Supplemental Opp’n Def.’s Mot. Relief 28 U.S.C. § 2255 (“Gov’t’s Opp’n”) 2-4, ECF No. 131. In its memorandum, the government conceded that Johnson applies retroactively to cases involving the ACCA, id. at 2, and that, under Johnson, the Guidelines’ Residual Clause is invalid, id. at 3. It argued, nevertheless, that “the application of Johnson to the Sentencing Guidelines’ residual clause produces procedural changes in the sentencing process that are not retroactive on collateral review.” Id.
In the time since the parties filed their briefs and the Court granted Ramirez’s motion at the February 25, 2016, hearing, the Supreme Court confirmed the retroac-tivity of Johnson as applied to the ACCA in Welch v. United States, — U.S. -, 136 S.Ct. 1257, 194 L.Ed.2d 387 (2016). The retroactive application of Johnson to the Guidelines’ Residual Clause, however, has not yet been addressed by the Supreme Court or any of the Courts of Appeal.
II. ANALYSIS
This case presents the question whether the Supreme Court’s decision in Johnson ought apply retroactively to invalidate the Guidelines’ Residual Clause on collateral review of Ramirez’s sentence under 28 U.S.C. § 2255.3 Accordingly, the Court first analyzes the merits of Ramirez’s con[295]*295stitutional claim — the due process vaguer ness challenge to the Guidelines’ Residual Clause — although the parties agree that the Guidelines’ Residual Clause is unconstitutionally vague. The Court then proceeds to conduct the retroactivity analysis for Johnson, as applied to the Guidelines, under the relevant framework for determining retroactivity provided by the plurality opinion in Teague v. Lane, 489 U.S. 288, 109 S.Ct. 1060, 108 L.Ed.2d 834 (1989). See Ferrara v. United States, 456 F.3d 278, 288 (1st Cir.2006).4
A. Due Process
Although the government conceded that the Guidelines’ Residual Clause is void for vagueness, the Court briefly addresses the merits of this argument — on which neither the First Circuit nor the Supreme-Court has yet spoken — for the purpose of “candidly explaining]” its reasoning.5 Robert E. Keeton, Keeton on Judging in the American legal System 5 (1999).
Under the Guidelines, an offender is subject to an increased sentencing range if classified as a “career offender” as a result of having “at least two prior felony convictions of either a crime of violence or a controlled substance offense.” U.S.S.G. § 4B1.1. The Guidelines define “crime of violence” as an offense that “(1) has as an element the use, attempted usé, or threatened use of physical force against the person of another, or (2) is burglary of a dwelling, arson, or extortion, involves use of explosives, or otherwise involves conduct that presents a serious potential risk of physical injury to another.” Id. § 4B1.2(a)(l)-(2) (emphasis added). The underlined text is the Guidelines’ Residual Clause.
In Johnson, the Supreme Court held that the identically worded residual clause of the ACCA was void for vagueness because it was “so vague it fail[ed] to give ordinary people fair notice of the conduct it punishe[d], or so standardless that it invite[d] arbitrary enforcement.” Johnson, 135 S.Ct. at 2556. The Court observed that “the experience of the federal courts leaves no doubt about the unavoidable uncertainty and arbitrariness of adjudication under the residual clause[,]” id. at 2562, and referenced cases interpreting both the ACCA residual clause and the Guidelines’ Residual Clause, id. at 2557, 2560 (collecting cases). In the First Circuit, the two residual clauses have also been analyzed in tandem in the past. See Ramirez I, 708 F.3d at 306; United States v. Grupee, 682 F.3d 143, 148-49 (1st Cir.2012); United States v. Giggey, 551 F.3d 27, 39 (1st Cir.2008).
[296]*296The Guidelines’ advisory nature6 does not render the Supreme Court’s conclusion inapplicable to the residual clause contained therein. Cf. Peugh v. United States, — U.S. -, 133 S.Ct. 2072, 2084, 186 L.Ed.2d84 (2013) (holding that the Guidelines are subject to the Ex Post Fac-to clause). The Guidelines “remain the starting' point for a district court’s decision,”7 Giggey, 551 F.3d at 29, and district courts are to justify major departures, see Peugh, 133 S.Ct. at 2080; United States v. Ortiz-Rodriguez, 789 F.3d 15, 19 (1st Cir.2015).8
Moreover, whether or not the eventual sentence falls within or outside the Guidelines range, the classification as career offender has a meaningful impact on the offender’s ultimate sentence. See Federal Defender’s Office, Average Sentences of Drug Trafficking Offenders (Career Offender and Non-career Offender) FY 2005-2014, https://www.fd.org/docs/select-topies/ sentencing-resources/average-sentences-of-drug-offenders-and-robbery-offenders-(career-offender-and-non-career-offender) — fy-2005-2014.pdf?sfvrsn=4 (last visited May 19, 2016). Data show that the difference between the average' sentences for career offenders versus non-career offenders is around 100 months. See id.
Although the Guidelines’ advisory nature means that a criminal defendant has no “expectation subject to due process protection ... that [he will] receive a sentence within the presumptively applicable Guidelines range[,]” Irizarry v. United States, 553 U.S. 708, 713, 128 S.Ct. 2198, 171 L.Ed.2d 28 (2008), the Guidelines’ continued role as “basis,” Peugh, 133 S.Ct. at 2083, for a- defendant’s ultimate sentence preserves his due process expectation that his sentence-enhancing classification as a [297]*297career offender will not be subject to the “unavoidable uncertainty and arbitrariness of adjudication under the residual clause,” Johnson, 135 S.Ct. at 2562. Indeed, the invocation of “so shapeless a provision” as the residual clause to sentence a defendant to a significantly higher sentence, id. at 2560, violates due process.9
B. Teague Analysis
According to Teague, “new constitutional rules of criminal procedure, [are not] applicable to those cases which have become final before the new rules [were] announced.” 489 U.S. at 310, 109 S.Ct. 1060. “[Sjubstantive rules,” however, are not subject to- the Teague retroactivity bar.10 See id. at 307, 109 S.Ct. 1060; Schriro v. Summerlin, 542 U.S. 348, 351, 124 S.Ct. 2519, 159 L.Ed.2d 442 (2004).
This section first discusses whether the rule at issue here — he., the invalidation of the Guidelines’ Residual Clause pursuant to Johnson — constitutes a “new” rule, for the purpose of Teague. Upon concluding that it is a new rule, the Court then turns to the question of whether it qualifies as a “substantive rule” applicable retroactively in this case.
1. New Rule
A case announces a new rule “when it breaks new ground or imposes a new obligation^]” or, in other words, “if the result was not dictated by precedent existing at the time the defendant’s conviction became final.”11 Teague, 489 U.S. at [298]*298301, 109 S.Ct. 1060; see also Chaidez v. United States, — U.S. -, 133 S.Ct. 1103, 1107, 186 L.Ed.2d 149 (2013) (a holding is not dictated by existing precedent “unless it would have been apparent to all reasonable jurists”) (internal citation and quotation marks omitted). Overruling existing precedent is sufficient to render a rule new, see Saffle v. Parks, 494 U.S. 484, 488, 110 S.Ct. 1257, 108 L.Ed.2d 416 (1990), though not necessary, see Stringer v. Black, 603 U.S. 222, 228, 112 S.Ct. 1130, 117 L.Ed.2d 367 (“[Granting the relief sought would create a new rule [where] the prior decision is applied in a novel setting, thereby extending the precedent”).
Niether party disputes that holding the Guidelines’ Residual Clause unconstitutionally vague would announce a “new rule,” though they differ in their framing of this issue. Compare Gov’t’s Opp’n 4 (“in order to grant collateral relief in a guidelines case based on Johnson, the Court would have to announce or apply two new rules that were not established before Johnson: that the guidelines’ residual clause is unconstitutionally vague, and that due process vagueness principles apply to the sentencing guidelines.”), with Def.’s Mem. 8-9 (arguing that the new rule announced in Johnson is the only rule the Court would have to apply to invalidate the Guidelines’ Residual Clause as unconstitutionally vague).
In the Court’s view, each party’s approach is flawed. The ultimate question here is whether the Court could give Ramirez and all other similarly situated defendants the benefit of the rule that the Guidelines residual clause is unconstitutionally vague. Splitting the rule in two, as the government urges, would create a procedural quagmire that would not serve the purpose of the Teague retroactivity framework.12 At the same time, categorically [299]*299applying the Johnson rule to the Guidelines, as Ramirez urges, would .not fairly account for the more involved analysis necessary to support the retroactivity of the Guidelines’ Residual Clause vagueness rule, which is not a perfunctory application of Johnson.13
In reality, the “new rule” question can be rather simply resolved. Application of Johnson to the Guidelines’ Residual Clause constitutes a new rule, Johnson itself — -which was decided after Ramirez’s conviction became final — overruled prior Supreme Court decisions, 135 S.Ct. at 2563, and thus announced a new rule, see Welch, 136 S.Ct. at 1265. To hold that the Guidelines’ Residual Clause is void for vagueness on the basis of Johnson, then, would be to announce a new constitutional rule and not merely to apply the “constitutional standards that prevailed” at the time Ramirez’s conviction became final. Teague, 489 U.S. at 306, 109 S.Ct. 1060. The new rule at issue, then — consistent with the above analysis and the Court’s rejection of each party’s more extreme approach — is the application of Johnson’s vagueness holding to invalidate the Guidelines’ Residual Clause.
2. Retroactivity
Having defined the new rule at issue, the Court must decide whether it applies to Ramirez. To do so, it must determine if it is retroactive under Teague.
Teague’s retroactivity framework “is founded on the notion that one of the ‘principal functions of habeas corpus [is] to assure that no man has been incarcerated under a procedure which creates an imper-missibly large risk that the innocent will be convicted.’ ” Bousley v. United States, 523 U.S. 614, 620, 118 S.Ct. 1604, 140 L.Ed.2d 828 (1998) (quoting Teague, 489 U.S. at 312, 109 S.Ct. 1060) (additional internal citation and quotation marks omitted). Through Teague and its progeny, the Supreme Court sketched the boundary separating rules that must apply retroactively in order to avoid such an “impermis-sibly large risk,” from those rules that need not have retroactive application to ensure that habeas corpus serves its main purpose. “Substantive rules” comprise the [300]*300former category, while “procedural rules” fall into the latter.14
Procedural rules are those “designed to enhance the accuracy of a conviction or sentence by regulating ‘the manner of determining the defendant’s culpability.’ ” Montgomery v. Louisiana, — U.S. -, 136 S.Ct 718, 730, 193 L.Ed.2d 599 (quoting Schriro, 542 U.S. at 353, 124 S.Ct. 2519; Teague, 489 U.S. at 313, 109 S.Ct. 1060). Such rules may, for example, “ ‘allocate decisionmaking' authority’ between judge’ and jury ... or regulate the evidence that the court could consider in making its decision.” Welch, 136 S.Ct. at 1265 (quoting Schriro, 542 U.S. at 353, 124 S.Ct. 2519). Again, these rules do not apply retroactively. Bousley, 523 U.S. at 620, 118 S.Ct. 1604.
Substantive rules, on the other hand, “set forth categorical constitutional guarantees that place certain criminal laws and punishments beyond the State’s power to impose.” Montgomery, 136 S.Ct. at 729. They include, for example, “rules forbidding criminal punishment of certain primary conduct” and “rules prohibiting a certain category of punishment for a class of defendants because of their status or offense.” Penry v. Lynaugh, 492 U.S. 302, 330, 109 S.Ct. 2934, 106 L.Ed.2d 256 (1989), abrogated on other grounds by Atkins v. Virginia, 536 U.S. 304, 122 S.Ct. 2242, 153 L.Ed.2d 335 (2002). These rules apply retroactively “because they necessarily carry a significant risk that a defendant stands convicted of an act that the law does not make criminal or faces a punishment that the law cannot impose upon him.” Schriro, 542 U.S. at 352, 124 S.Ct. 2519 (internal quotation marks and citation omitted).
The government argues that while Johnson announced a substantive rule, the application of that rule to the Guidelines’ Residual Clause is procedural, and thus non-retroactive, as it merely alters the range of appropriate sentences under the advisory Guidelines and does not render Ramirez’s sentence unlawful.15 See Def.’s [301]*301Opp’n 12-19. Ramirez, meanwhile, argues that Johnson is “categorically retroactive,” Def.’s Mem. 6 (quoting Stork v. United States, No 15-2687, slip op. at 1 (7th Cir. Aug. 13, 2015)) — that is, because Johnson is retroactive as applied to the ACCA Residual Clause, it is also retroactive as applied to the Guidelines’ Residual Clause, see id. at 3-8.
As discussed supra, the Court rejects Ramirez’s categorical approach to defining the rule at issue here. In other words, the rule with which the Court deals here is not Johnson itself, but rather Johnson as applied to the Guidelines’ Residual Clause. Accordingly, that Johnson was held to be substantive, and thus retroactive, see Welch, 136 S.Ct. at 1265, does not resolve the inquiry; in order for Ramirez to benefit from retroactivity here, the invalidation of the Guidelines’ Residual Clause, pursuant to Johnson, must be substantive. The Court holds that it is.16
Under the Guidelines, the basis for a defendant’s sentencing range is provided by two variables: the offense level and the criminal history category. United States v. Serrano-Mercado, 784 F.3d 838, 839. The criminal history category ranges from Category I to Category VI; the higher the category, the higher the sentence. Id. A career offender is assigned Category VI, the highest possible range, id. in keeping with Congress’s mandate to the United States Sentencing Commission that “the [Guidelines specify a sentence to a term of imprisonment at or near the maximum term authorized” for career offenders. 28 U.S.C. § 994(h). A career offender designation may also increase an offender’s offense level. U.S.S.G. § 4B1.1(b). The offense level and the criminal history category provide an initial suggested sentencing range. Serrano-Mercado, 784 F.3d at 839.
Before embarking on the “advisory” component of sentencing under the Guidelines — the consideration of the 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a) factors (the majority of which are related to the primary offense and not the offender’s criminal history) and other variations — the judge already views the defendant through “career offender-tinted glasses” with a baseline sentencing range “multitudes” higher than otherwise. Hawkins v. United States, 706 F.3d 820, 827 (7th Cir.) (Rowan J., dissenting), opinion supplemented on denial of reh’g, 724 F.3d 915 (7th Cir.2013). Moreover, empirical [302]*302data shows that even after a judge exercises her discretion to deviate from the initially suggested sentencing range, the differential between the sentences with and the sentences without the career-offender designation persists, as a result of the Guidelines’ continuing “gravitational pull,” Hawkins, 706 F.3d at 824, resulting from procedural hurdles that “make the imposition of a non-Guidelines sentence less likely[,]” Peugh, 133 S.Ct. at 2083-84; see supra Section II.A. Year after year following Booker, the vast majority of sentences imposed by federal district courts fell within or below the Guidelines. See U.S.S.C., Sourcebook of Federal Sentencing Statistics FY 2007 to FY 2014, Table N (approximately fifty percent of sentences are within the Guidelines). In fact, only two percent or fewer of the sentences imposed constituted upward departures in every year since Booker.17 Id. The numbers are fairly consistent among circuits. Id. Table N-1 to N-11.
The numbers confirm that, in practice, the upper limit of a Guidelines range acts as a ceiling for the vast majority of sentences imposed by federal district court judges, making a career-offender designation the equivalent of an increase in a statutory maximum.18 See United States v. Gurley, 860 F.Supp.2d 95, 116 (D.Mass. 2012) (this Court sentenced the defendant to the high end of the applicable Guidelines range); see also United States v. Kandirakis, 441 F.Supp.2d 282, 335-336 (D.Mass.2006) (sentence within thé Guidelines range).19 Although judges may depart downward more substantially when sentencing career offenders, see Spencer v. United States, 773 F.3d 1132, 1142 (11th Cir.2014) (en banc), the differential be[303]*303tween the unenhanced sentence and the enhanced one remains significant, at an annual average of 100 months even after accounting for all the “advisory” steps that influence the ultimate sentence.20 See supra Section II.A. In this case, in the absence of the career-offender designation, Ramirez’s sentencing would have been based on a sentencing range of 37 to 46 months. See supra Section I.A. With the career-offender designation, that jumps to a range of 151 to 188 months. Id.
That some — realistically, few — offenders would receive the same sentence, with or without the career offender classification, does not undermine the substantive character of the rule at issue here. Cf. Montgomery, 136 S.Ct. at 734 (holding that Miller v. Alabama, — U.S. -, 132 S.Ct. 2455, 183 L.Ed.2d 407 (2012), announced a substantive rule). In Miller, the Supreme Court held that juveniles convicted of homicide could not be sentenced to life in prison without parole absent consideration of the juvenile’s special circumstances. 132 S.Ct. at 2469. Several years later, in Montgomery, the Supreme Court held that the Miller rule was retroactive even though the rule did not categorically bar life without parole for juveniles, because it “carr[ies] a significant risk that ... the vast majority of juvenile offenders ... face[] a punishment that the law cannot impose on [them].” 136 S.Ct. at 734 (citation omitted). According to the Supreme Court, it sufficed that Miller “bar[red] life without parole ... for all but the rarest of juvenile offenders.” Id.21 Similarly, here, an offender designated as career offender under- the Guidelines’ Residual Clause would be subject to a sentence multiple times higher than in the absence of the designation in the vast majority of cases.22
[304]*304Given the impact of a career offender designation on a defendant’s sentence, if a court were to refuse retroactively to apply the invalidation of the Guidelines’ Residual Clause, the risk that a defendant received a sentence that otherwise he would not have received is more than “likely to rise,” Conrad v. United States, 815 F.3d 324, 327 (7th Cir.2016). Rather, the court’s decision would carry the “impermissibly large risk,” Teague, 489 U.S. at 312, 109 S.Ct. 1060, that the punishment exceeds what the defendant would have received without the designation. This risk trumps finality in the Teague framework.23 See Teague, 489 U.S. at 307-308, 312, 109 S.Ct. 1060. Accordingly, the invalidation of the Guidelines’ Residual Clause pursuant to Johnson constitutes a substantive rule that must apply retroactively.24
III. CONCLUSION
It follows from the foregoing analysis that the rule announced in this case — that the- Guidelines’ Residual Clause is unconstitutionally vague and is retroactively applicable to 'Ramirez, entitles him to the relief provided by Section 2255. According[305]*305ly,-the Court granted Ramirez’s Section 2255 petition to vacate, set aside, or correct his sentence. Elec. Clerk’s Notes, ECFNo. 137.