OPINION
CHAGARES, Circuit Judge.
At issue in this appeal is whether Michael Calabretta’s prior state conviction for eluding in the second degree qualifies as a “crime of violence” under the advisory United States Sentencing Guidelines (the “Guidelines,” or “U.S.S.G.”). In light of Johnson v. United States, — U.S. -, 135 S.Ct. 2551, 192 L.Ed.2d 569 (2015), we hold that the District Court plainly erred in considering the state conviction to be a “crime of violence” under the Guidelines. We will vacate Calabretta’s sentence and remand for resentencing.
I.
On March 15, 2013, Calabretta pleaded guilty to a two-count superseding information, charging him with conspiracy to distribute and possess with the intent to distribute marijuana, in violation of 21 U.S.C. §§ 841(a)(1), 841(b)(1)(B) and 846, and with conspiracy to launder the proceeds of drug trafficking activity, in violation of 18 U.S.C. §§ 1956(a)(1)(A)© and 1956(h). Cal-[131]*131abretta was subject to a five-year mandatory minimum sentence pursuant to the stipulated charges in the plea agreement.
In advance of sentencing, the parties and the District Court received a copy of the Presentence Report (the “PSR”), which included Calabretta’s Criminal History Category and Total Offense Level. The PSR considered multiple prior state convictions in calculating . Calabretta’s Criminal History Category, including a 1990 conviction for “Death by Auto” and a 1994 conviction for “Eluding in the Second Degree.” The PSR also considered those two convictions to constitute “crimes of violence” pursuant to U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2, and accordingly designated Calabretta as a “career offender” under the Guidelines.1 Application of the career offender Guideline increased Calabretta’s Criminal History Category from III to VI, and increased his Total Offense Level from 29 to 31. With the career offender Guideline, Cala-bretta’s recommended Guidelines sentencing range was 188 to 235 months of imprisonment. Had the career offender Guideline not applied, his recommended Guidelines sentencing range would have been 108 to 135 months.
At sentencing, the District Court adopted the PSR’s calculation of Criminal History Category VI and Total Offense Level of 31, which included the application of the career offender Guideline. After considering the sentencing factors set forth in 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a) (“section 3553(a)”), the District Court imposed a sentence of 120 months on each count to be served concurrently. Calabretta’s sentence thus reflected a 68-month downward variance from the advisory Guidelines sentencing range.
In imposing Calabretta’s sentence, the District Court extensively discussed Cala-bretta’s earlier criminal convictions. The District Court noted that Calabretta became “involved in this particular scheme approximately five years after he was released from jail on his prior convictions and ... [he] should have learned [his] lesson.” Appendix (“App.”) 141. The District Court also indicated that “a very substantial sentence is required,” in part, to “get through to [Calabretta] that if [he] thought [he] had reformed, reforming by becoming a drug dealer is not reforming.” App. 142. Additionally, the District Court denied Calabretta’s request for a two-level reduction in his offense level, in anticipation of an amendment to the Guidelines. The District Court noted that Calabretta would be ineligible for a sentencing reduction under the amendment “given [his] pri- or criminal record.” App. 132.
On September 11, 2014, the District Court entered the final judgment of conviction and sentence, which reflected the 120-month term of imprisonment imposed. Calabretta timely appealed.
II.2
At his sentencing, Calabretta did not challenge whether his state conviction for eluding in the second degree is a “crime of violence,” so we will review the [132]*132District Court’s determination of that issue for plain error. To establish plain error, Calabretta must show that (1) the District Court erred; (2) the error was clear or obvious, rather than subject to reasonable dispute; and (3) the error affected the appellant’s substantial rights, which in the ordinary course means that there is a reasonable probability that the error affected the outcome of the proceedings. United States v. Marcus, 560 U.S. 258, 262, 130 S.Ct. 2159, 176 L.Ed.2d 1012 (2010); United States v. Tai, 750 F.3d 309, 313-14 (3d Cir.2014). If all three elements are established, then the Court may exercise its discretion to award relief. See United States v. Plano, 507 U.S. 725, 736, 113 S.Ct. 1770, 123 L.Ed.2d 508 (1993). That discretion should be exercised only in cases where the error “seriously affect[s] the fairness, integrity or public reputation of judicial proceedings.” Id. (quotation marks omitted); see also United States v. Stinson, 734 F.3d 180, 184 (3d Cir.2013).
III.
Calabretta argues that the District Court plainly erred in treating his conviction for eluding as a “crime of violence” under the Sentencing Guidelines, and that his case should be remanded for resen-tencing.3 The Guidelines define a “crime of violence” as:
any offense under federal or state law, punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year, that —
1. has as an element the use, attempted use, or threatened use of physical force against the person of another, or
2. is burglary of a dwelling, arson, or extortion, involves use of explosives, or otherwise involves conduct that presents a serious potential risk of physical injury to another.
U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2(a) (emphasis added). The Government has conceded that Calabret-ta’s eluding conviction qualifies as a “crime of violence” only under what is known as the “residual clause” of the Guideline — as “otherwise involving] conduct that presents a serious potential risk of physical injury to another.”4 See Gov’t Letter Pursuant to Fed. R. App. P. 28(j) (Aug. 12, 2015).
A.
While Calabretta’s appeal was pending, the United States Supreme Court decided Johnson v. United States, — U.S. -, 135 S.Ct. 2551, 192 L.Ed.2d 569 (2015), which held that an identically worded residual clause in the Armed Career Criminal Act (“ACCA”) was unconstitutional. Under ACCA, defendants are subject to a more severe punishment if they have three or more previous convictions for a “violent felony” — which included, under the statute’s residual clause, “conduct that presents a serious potential risk of physical injury to • another.” 18 U.S.C. § 924(e)(2)(B)(ii). Supreme Court prece[133]*133dent prior to Johnson had required courts to use a “categorical” approach to determine whether a crime fell within ACCA’s residual clause. See Sykes v. United States, 564 U.S. 1, 131 S.Ct. 2267, 180 L.Ed.2d 60 (2011); James v. United States, 550 U.S. 192, 127 S.Ct. 1586, 167 L.Ed.2d 532 (2007). The categorical approach prescribed that courts “picture the kind of conduct that the crime involves in ‘the ordinary case,’ and to judge whether that abstraction presents a serious potential risk of physical injury.” Johnson, 135 S.Ct. at 2557 (quoting James v. United States, 550 U.S. 192, 208, 127 S.Ct. 1586, 167 L.Ed.2d 532 (2007)).
But in Johnson, the Supreme Court overruled its earlier cases — Sykes and James — that required courts to use the categorical approach to determine whether a crime was included in ACCA’s residual clause. Rather, the Supreme Court invalidated, as unconstitutionally vague, ACCA’s residual clause. The Supreme Court held that defendants were denied due process of law when their sentences were increased after application of ACCA’s residual clause because the “indeterminacy of the wide-ranging inquiry required by the residual clause both denies fair notice to defendants and invites arbitrary enforcement by judges.” Johnson, 135 S.Ct. at 2557. The Court ruled that the indeterminacy inherent in both inquiries under the categorical approach — (1) imagining the conduct in “the ordinary case” of a crime, and (2) imagining the “serious potential risk” of that “ordinary case” — was, at least in combination, unconstitutionally vague.5 Id. at 2557-58. The Court also noted the practical results of prior jurisprudence interpreting .the residual clause: numerous splits among the federal courts regarding the type of inquiry for determining what a crime is in “the ordinary case,” and ultimately, which crimes fall within the residual clause. Id. at 2560. Therefore, the Supreme Court held that “[ijnvoking so shapeless a provision to condemn someone to prison ... does not comport with the Constitution’s guarantee of due process.” Id,
B.
Under the plain error standard, we must first consider whether the District Court committed an error when it considered the eluding conviction as a “crime of violence” in determining Calabretta to be a career offender under the Guidelines. Both the Government and Calabretta argue that, under Johnson, the identically worded “residual clause” of § 4B1.2 of the Guidelines is likewise invalid. This question, however, is one for the courts — not the parties — to decide. “Confessions of error ... do not relieve this Court of the performance of the judicial function.... [0]ur judgments are precedents, and the proper administration of the criminal law cannot be left merely to the stipulation of parties.” Sibron v. New York, 392 U.S. 40, 58, 88 S.Ct. 1889, 20 L.Ed.2d 917 (1968) (quotation marks and citations omitted).
We hold that the “residual clause” in § 4B1.2 of the Guidelines is unconstitu[134]*134tionally vague.6 This holding flows from our prior case law wherein we have interpreted the “crime of violence” definition in the Guidelines identically to the “violent felony” definition in ACCA.7 For example, in United States v. Hopkins, 577 F.3d 507 (3d Cir.2009), we considered whether a second degree misdemeanor escape offense under Pennsylvania law qualified as a crime of violence under the residual clause of section 4B1.2. The case was remanded to us by the Supreme Court to be considered further in light of Chambers v. United States, 555 U.S. 122, 129 S.Ct. 687, 172 L.Ed.2d 484 (2009), an ACCA decision dealing with whether the offense of failing to report for incarceration was a violent felony. See Hopkins v. United States, 555 U.S. 1132, 129 S.Ct. 995, 173 L.Ed.2d 285 (2009). We applied Chambers and held that while the Supreme Court in that decision “was not called upon to construe the career offender provision of the Sentencing Guidelines, the definition of a violent felony under the ACCA is sufficiently similar to the definition of a crime of violence under the Sentencing Guidelines that authority interpreting one is generally applied to the other.” 577 F.3d at 511 (footnote omitted). In addition, we observed that the validity of our holding was “demonstrated by the Supreme Court’s remand order in this case.” Id.
[135]*135More recently, in United States v. Marrero, 743 F.3d 389 (3d Cir.2014), we considered whether a simple assault was a crime of violence under the Guidelines residual clause of section 4B1.2. Notably, the case was back before a panel of our Court after being remanded by the Supreme Court in light of its decision in Descamps v. United States, — U.S. -, 133 S.Ct. 2276, 186 L.Ed.2d 438 (2013) — a decision, like Chambers, involving application of the identical “violent felony” provision of ACCA. See Marrero v. United States, — U.S. -, 133 S.Ct. 2732, 186 L.Ed.2d 930 (2013). Our analysis relied upon numerous cases decided under ACCA. 743 F.3d at 394-401. We held that although those cases “involved sentencing enhancements under [ACCA] rather than the career offender Guideline, they nevertheless bind our analysis.” Id. at 394 n. 2 (emphasis added). We explained that “ ‘[precedent ... requires the application of case law interpreting “violent felony” in ACCA to “crime of violence” in U.S.S.G. 4B1.2[] because of the substantial similarity of the two sections.’ ” Id. (quoting United States v. Herrick, 545 F.3d 53, 58 (1st Cir.2008)).
This approach of similarly interpreting the two residual clauses remains appropriate for the case before us now. Prior to Johnson, courts in this circuit were instructed to use the same categorical approach under both residual clauses for determining whether a conviction qualifies as a crime of violence — that is, “whether the elements of the offense are of the type that would justify its inclusion within the residual provision, without inquiring into the specific conduct of this particular offender.” Marrero, 743 F.3d at 395 (quotation marks and emphasis omitted). But in Johnson, the Supreme Court held that the indeterminacy inherent in the categorical approach, under ACCA, denied defendants due process by “denfying] fair notice to defendants” and “invit[ing] arbitrary enforcement by judges.” 135 S.Ct. at 2557.
It is apparent that if ACCA’s residual clause “invites arbitrary enforcement,” id. so does the residual clause in § 4B1.2. The process by which a sentencing court determines whether a prior conviction is a “crime of violence” is the same process that the Supreme Court held to be fraught with indeterminacy under ACCA. And the result of this indeterminate process— whether or not a defendant is designated a career offender under § 4B1.2 — will shift the “benchmark” or “framework” of the district court’s sentencing determination by changing the recommended sentencing range. See Peugh v. United, — U.S. -, 133 S.Ct. 2072, 2083, 186 L.Ed.2d 84 (2013) (indicating that the advisory Guidelines serve as a “framework” for “anchor[ing]” sentencing decisions with the purpose of achieving “uniformity” in sentencing); Gall v. United States, 552 U.S. 38, 49, 128 S.Ct. 586, 169 L.Ed.2d 445 (2007) (indicating that the Guidelines, although advisory, “should be the starting point and the initial benchmark” in order to “secure nationwide consistency” in sentences imposed). See also Pawlak, 822 F.3d at 906 (“Peugh reflects the Court’s judgment that the Guidelines are subject to constitutional challenges because the Guidelines are the mandatory starting point for sentencing determinations and district courts can be reversed for failing to correctly apply them despite the judges’ discretion to deviate from the recommended range. The Supreme Court’s reasoning in Peugh rests on the very same principles of fair notice and avoiding arbitrary enforcement underlying the doctrine of due process.”) (citations omitted). See generally 28 U.S.C. § 994(f) (“The Commission, in promulgating guidelines ... shall promote the purposes set forth ... with particular attention to the requirements ... for providing certainty and fairness in sentencing and reducing [136]*136unwarranted sentence disparities”)- This takes us back to first principles in sentencing, under which we require that courts calculate a defendant’s Guidelines range as the first step in any sentencing, prior to application of the sentencing factors set out at 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a). United States v. Gunter, 462 F.3d 237, 247 (3d Cir.2006). “[W]hen the starting point for the § 3553(a) analysis is incorrect, the end point, i.e., the resulting sentence can rarely be shown to be unaffected.” United States v. Langford, 516 F.3d 205, 217 (3d Cir.2008). Thus, a defendant’s recommended sentence (and ultimate sentence imposed) will likely be affected by how the sentencing court determines whether a prior conviction, viewed only in the abstract and not with reference to real-world facts, is a “crime of violence” under the § 4B1.2 residual clause.
Our holding also flows from our prior case law that considered constitutional vagueness challenges to the Guidelines. For example, in United States v. Maurer, 639 F.3d 72, 78 n. 4 (3d Cir.2011), we held that U.S.S.G. § 2G2.2(b)(4) was not unconstitutionally vague because it gave “a person of ordinary intelligence fair notice of the conduct to which it applies” and did not “authorize or encourage arbitrary and discriminatory enforcement.” See also United States v. Jones, 979 F.2d 317, 319-20 (3d Cir.1992) (holding that U.S.S.G § 2Dl.l(c)(6) is not void for vagueness), superseded by Guideline on other grounds, U.S.S.G. app. C, amend. 487 (eff. Nov. 1, 1993), as recognized in United States v. Roberson, 194 F.3d 408, 417 (3d Cir.1999). Our case law is supported by the Supreme Court’s recognition that the Guidelines are sufficiently law-like to be subject to certain limits imposed by the Constitution. See, e.g., Peugh, 133 S.Ct. at 2082 (holding that erroneously applying amended Guidelines that are advisory but still increase a defendant’s recommended sentence violates the Ex Post Facto Clause, as the “change in law presents a sufficient risk of increasing the measure of punishment attached to the covered crimes” (quotation marks omitted)). See also United States v. Savani, 733 F.3d 56, 66 (3d Cir. 2013) (holding that the rule of lenity applies to the Guidelines).
We note, however, that the Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit has declined to apply the vagueness doctrine to the advisory Guidelines. See United States v. Matchett, 802 F.3d 1185, 1194-95 (11th Cir.2015) (holding that the § 4B1.2 residual clause was not invalid after Johnson). But the court in Matchett focused only on whether the advisory Guidelines could deny fair notice to a criminal defendant, and not whether a criminal defendant is protected against arbitrary enforcement in an advisory Guidelines sentencing system. See id. at 1194. We conclude, for the reasons previously discussed, that regardless of whether defendants are entitled to “fair notice” under an advisory Guidelines system,8 the due process concerns over arbi[137]*137trary enforcement are implicated here. See United States v. Madrid, 805 F.3d 1204, 1210-11 (10th Cir.2015) (“If one iteration of the clause is unconstitutionally vague, so too is the other. ... Because the Guidelines are the beginning of all sentencing determinations, and in light of the unavoidable uncertainty and arbitrariness of adjudication under the residual clause, we hold that the residual clause of § 4B1.2(a)(2) is void for vagueness.” (quotation marks and citation omitted)).
The Supreme Court’s decision in Johnson supports our conclusion. In its discussion of arbitrary enforcement, the Supreme Court cited to cases involving the § 4B1.2 residual clause to demonstrate that ACCA’s residual clause is “nearly impossible to apply consistently.” See Johnson, 135 S.Ct. at 2560 (citing United States v. Carthorne, 726 F.3d 503 (4th Cir.2013); United States v. Whitson, 597 F.3d 1218 (11th Cir.2010) (per curiam); United States v. McDonald, 592 F.3d 808 (7th Cir.2010); United States v. Williams, 559 F.3d 1143 (10th Cir.2009)). In addition, the Supreme Court vacated the sentences of some offenders who were sentenced under the residual clause of the Sentencing Guidelines, and remanded to the courts of appeals for further consideration in light of Johnson. See United States v. Maldonado, 581 Fed. Appx. 19 (2d Cir.2014), vacated, — U.S. -, 135 S.Ct. 2929, 192 L.Ed.2d 966 (2015); Beckles v. United States, 579 Fed.Appx. 833 (11th Cir.2014), vacated, — U.S.-, 135 S.Ct. 2928, 192 L.Ed.2d 973 (2015). As noted earlier, this type of Supreme Court action is significant. See Hopkins, 577 F.3d at 511.
We hold that the residual clause of the career offender Guideline, like ACCA’s residual clause, is infected with “hopeless indeterminacy,” Johnson, 135 S.Ct. at 2558, and is unconstitutionally vague in light of Johnson.9 Therefore, we conclude that the District Court erred in determining that Calabretta was a career offender.10
[138]*138C.
Second, the error here is plain. An error that is plain is “clear or obvious, rather than subject to reasonable dispute,” Puckett v. United States, 556 U.S. 129, 135, 129 S.Ct. 1423, 173 L.Ed.2d 266 (2009) (citing Olano, 507 U.S. at 734, 113 S.Ct. 1770), at the time of appellate consideration, see Henderson v. United States, — U.S. -, 133 S.Ct. 1121, 1130-31, 185 L.Ed.2d 85 (2013). Although our Court has not ruled on the precise question as to whether the residual clause of section 4B1.2 is void for vagueness,11 we have previously entertained similar challenges, see Maurer, 639 F.3d at 78 n. 4, and we have held that Supreme Court cases construing ACCA “bind our analysis” of the career offender Guideline, Marrero, 743 F.3d at 394 n. 2. Therefore, as Johnson was decided while Calabretta’s appeal was pending, and as our 'Court has consistently construed the career offender Guideline similarly to ACCA, the error here is plain.12
D.
Third, the error affected Calabretta’s substantial rights. “[T]o have affected a defendant’s substantial rights, a plain error must have caused the defendant prejudice, in that it ‘affected the outcome of the district court proceedings.’ ” United States v. Tann, 577 F.3d 533, 538 (3d Cir. 2009) (quoting Piano, 507 U.S. at 734, 113 S.Ct. 1770). The Supreme Court recently held that “[wjhen a defendant is sentenced under an incorrect Guidelines range— whether or not the defendant’s ultimate sentence falls within the correct range— the error can, and most often will, be sufficient to show a reasonable probability of a different outcome absent the error.” Molina-Martinez v. United States, — U.S. -, 136 S.Ct. 1338, 1345, 194 L.Ed.2d 444 (2016). The Government, however, “remains free to point to parts of the record — including relevant statements by the judge — to counter any ostensible showing of prejudice the defendant may make.” Id. at 1347 (quotation marks and alterations omitted). Accordingly, “in the ordinary case a defendant will satisfy his burden to show prejudice by pointing to the application of an incorrect, higher Guidelines range and the sentence he received thereunder. Absent unusual circumstances, he will not be required to show more.” Id.
Despite conceding that Calabretta is no longer a career offender, the Government maintains that the error did not affect Calabretta’s substantial rights. The Government points to the District Court’s downward variance and the District Court’s explanation that “ ‘a sentence of 120 months ... is the minimum sentence sufficient to secure the purposes of sentencing that are set forth in [section] 3553’ ” as indications that the District Court would have imposed the same sentence irrespective of the Guidelines range. See Gov’t Letter Pursuant to Fed. R. App. P. 28(j) (July 28, 2015) (quoting App. 143). We disagree with the Government’s contentions. The record in this case does not “show ... that the district court thought [139]*139the sentence it chose was appropriate irrespective of the Guidelines range.” Molina-Martinez, 136 S.Ct. at 1346.
There are indications in the record that the application of the career offender enhancement did affect Calabretta’s sentence. The District Court placed significant emphasis on Calabretta’s criminal history and his lack of “reform.” App. 141-43. The sentencing court noted that Calabretta was “not a stranger to the criminal justice system,” that he “should have learned [his] lesson” from his prior convictions, and that his eluding conviction, in particular, “compounded” his lack of reform. App. 141. After focusing on Calabretta’s prior convictions, the District Court indicated its belief that “a very substantial sentence is required,” in part, “to get through to [Cal-abretta] that if [he] thought [he] had reformed, reforming by becoming a drug dealer is not reforming.” App. 142. We do not think any of those observations inapt, but we cannot divine whether the District Court would have placed such emphasis on Calabretta’s criminal history and his eluding conviction, had he not been designated a career offender convicted of multiple, prior “crimes of violence.”
Additionally, the District Court denied Calabretta’s request for a two-level reduction in his offense level based on anticipated amendments to the Guidelines that lowered the offense level for certain narcotics offenses.13 In denying Calabretta’s request, the District Court noted that Calabretta, as a career offender, would be ineligible for a sentence reduction under the amended Guidelines. App. 131-32. We cannot intuit whether the District Court would have granted the request if Calabretta were not a career offender, but we note that the District Court did grant such a request for two of Calabretta’s co-defendants who were not designated career offenders with no objection from the Government.14 See Gov’t Br. at 9 n.6. And had the District Court granted the reduction, Calabretta’s recommended Guidelines range would have been 87 to 108 months. Calabretta’s 120-month sentence, then, would constitute a 12-month upward variance from that Guidelines range.15
[140]*140Moreover, we emphasize the sheer magnitude of the disparity between Cala-bretta’s correct Guidelines range and his erroneously-enhanced Guidelines range. Designated a career offender, Calabretta had a Guidelines range of 188 to 235 months of imprisonment. Absent that enhancement, his range was calculated as 108 to 135 months of imprisonment — or perhaps 87 to 108 months of imprisonment with a Guidelines range reduction in anticipation of Amendment 782. The difference amounts to years of additional time in prison. By contrast, the Supreme Court held in Molina-Martinez that an erroneous Guidelines calculation that affected the defendant’s range by seven months constituted plain error. 136 S.Ct. at 1344. The size of the miscalculation here thus weighs strongly in favor of the conclusion that the error affected Calabretta’s substantial rights.
We hold that the Guidelines miscalculation here is sufficient to show a reasonable probability that his sentence would have been different absent the error. We cannot assume here that the sentencing court would have imposed the same sentence regardless of the career offender designation. To assume so — particularly when the record suggests that Calabretta’s criminal history played a role in the ultimate sentence imposed — would “place us in the zone of speculation and conjecture.” United States v. Zabielski, 711 F.3d 381, 387 (3d Cir.2013) (quotation marks and alteration marks omitted) (applying harmless error review). Therefore, Calabretta has demonstrated that the District Court’s error affected his substantial rights.
E.
The Supreme Court has recently reminded us that “[u]nder the Plano framework, appellate courts retain broad discretion in determining whether a remand for resentencing is necessary.”16 Molina-Martinez, 136 S.Ct. at 1348. But that broad discretion should not be exercised reflexively when the other elements of the plain error standard are met. Plano, 507 U.S. at 737, 113 S.Ct. 1770 (“[A] plain error affecting substantial rights does not, without more, satisfy the [plain error standard], for otherwise the discretion afforded by the [standard] would be illusory.”); see United States v. John, 597 F.3d 263, 288-89 (5th Cir.2010) (“The discretion inherent in the plain-error standard is not tantamount to caprice, nor is it to be exercised because of sympathy or lack thereof for a particular individual or the public’s or a judge’s opinion as to the seriousness or heinous nature of a particular crime.”). Cur discretion is properly exercised in case-specific circumstances where an error “seriously affect[s] the fairness, integrity or public reputation of judicial proceedings.” Plano, 507 U.S. at 736, 113 S.Ct. 1770 (quotation marks omitted). That considerable standard has been met in this case.
Calabretta’s advisory Guidelines sentencing range would have been sub[141]*141stantially lower if he had not been labelled a career offender. If the District Court had applied a two-level reduction in offense level in anticipation of Amendment 782— like it did with two of Calabretta’s co-defendants — then Calabretta’s sentence represents a 12-month upward variance from the applicable Guidelines range. Nor is this a situation where the District Court made clear that Calabretta’s career offender status did not have an effect on his sentencing range. At his sentencing hearing, the District Court repeatedly emphasized Calabretta’s criminal history and lack of reform following his prior convictions.17 Therefore, we cannot presume that the District Court would have likely imposed the same sentence had Calabretta not been designated a career offender. It is possible — perhaps even likely, given the below-Guidelines. sentences of Calabretta and those of his co-defendants — that the District Court still would have imposed a below-Guidelines sentence under the correct Guidelines range.18
We are convinced that if we were to affirm Calabretta’s sentence, which was-[142]*142imposed against the backdrop of a legally incorrect career offender designation and a significantly higher Guidelines range, it would indeed seriously affect the fairness, integrity or public reputation of judicial proceedings. See Madrid, 805 F.3d at 1212 (“[Wjhen the correct application of the sentencing laws would likely significantly reduce the length of the sentence, circuit courts have almost uniformly held the error to implicate fundamental fairness issues.” (quotation marks omitted)); cf. Tai, 750 F.3d at 320 (“[W]e exercise our discretion to correct the error because it increased the sentence without the necessary fact finding and thereby affected the integrity of the proceedings.”). Accordingly, we will exercise our discretion to award Calabretta relief.
IV.
In sum, Calabretta has demonstrated the requisite elements to establish plain error, and we will exercise our discretion to award appropriate relief. We will thus vacate Calabretta’s sentence and remand for resentencing.