MEMORANDUM OPINION
VIRGINIA EMERSON HOPKINS, District Judge.
This case is presently before the Court on Defendant Alabama Power Company’s (“Alabama Power”) Motion in Limine to Exclude on
Daubert
Grounds (doc. 292). Plaintiffs filed a response (doc. 319) to which Alabama Power replied (doc. 349). On December 29, 2010, the Court granted Plaintiffs until January 11, 2011, to set out their position on whether or not Gorgas Unit 10 is a baseload unit as delineated in
United States v. Cinergy Corp.,
623 F.3d 455 (7th Cir.2010). (Doc. 351). Plaintiffs filed a response to this Order (doc. 360) and a statement of additional evidence (doc. 366) to which Alabama Power replied (doc. 367). A hearing was held on this motion on February 18, 2011. At this time, the Court will only address Alabama Power’s Motion insofar as it relates to Mr. Robert H. Koppe (“Koppe”) and Dr. Ranajit Sahu (“Sahu”). For the reasons explained below, Alabama Power’s Motion in Limine relating to Koppe and Sahu is due to be granted.
I. STANDARD
While Federal Rules of Evidence 401 and 402 provide for the liberal admission of relevant evidence, Rules 403, 702, and 703 mitigate against this general policy by giving trial courts the discretion to exclude expert testimony that is either unreliable or irrelevant.
See Allison v. McGhan Med. Corp.,
184 F.3d 1300, 1310 (11th Cir.1999). The Eleventh Circuit has held that scientific expert testimony is admissible when:
(1) the expert is qualified to testify competently regarding the matters he intends to address; (2) the methodology by which the expert reaches his conclusion is sufficiently reliable as determined by the sort of inquiry mandated in
Daubert;
and (3) the testimony assists the trier of fact, through the application of scientific, technical, or specialized expertise, to understand the evidence or to determine a fact in issue.
Cook v. Sheriff of Monroe Cnty.,
402 F.3d 1092, 1107 (11th Cir.2005) (quoting
United States v. Frazier,
387 F.3d 1244, 1260 (11th Cir.2004)). The proponent of the expert testimony bears the burden of laying the proper foundation for the admission of the expert testimony, and admissibility must be shown by a preponderance of the evidence.
Id.
In
Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals Inc.,
509 U.S. 579, 113 S.Ct. 2786, 125 L.Ed.2d 469 (1993), the Supreme Court imposed a special duty upon trial judges pursuant to Rule 702, requiring the judge to act as a “gate-keeper” and ensure that scientific evidence is both reliable and relevant before it is admitted.
Id.
at 589, 113 S.Ct. 2786. The
Daubert
Court set out four nonexclusive factors which should be considered by a trial court assessing the reliability of expert scientific testimony under Rule 702: (1) whether the theory or technique is capable of being tested; (2) whether the theory or technique has been subjected to peer review and publication; (3) whether the technique has a high known or potential rate of error; and (4) whether the theory has gained general acceptance within the scientific community.
Daubert,
509 U.S. at 593-94, 113 S.Ct. 2786. Other factors which have been considered in conducting a
Daubert
analysis include “reliance on anecdotal evidence (as in case reports), temporal proximity, and improper extrapolation (as in animal studies).”
Allison,
184 F.3d at 1312.
A
Daubert
inquiry focuses on the principles and methodology underlying expert opinion testimony, not on the conclusions they generate.
Id. (citing Daubert,
509 U.S. at 595, 113 S.Ct. 2786). However, testimony based solely on the experience of the expert is not admissible.
Rider v. Sandoz Pharm. Corp.,
295 F.3d 1194, 1197 (11th Cir.2002). The court must be sure that the expert “employs in the courtroom the same level of intellectual rigor that characterizes the practice of an expert in the relevant field.”
Id.
(quoting
Kumho Tire Co., Ltd. v. Carmichael,
526 U.S. 137, 157, 119 S.Ct. 1167, 143 L.Ed.2d 238 (1999)). Accordingly, the proponent of the testimony does not have the burden of proving that the testimony is scientifically correct, but that it is reliable.
Allison,
184 F.3d at 1312. However, the conclusions reached and the methodology used to reach them are not “entirely distinct from one another.”
General Elec. Co. v. Joiner,
522 U.S. 136, 146, 118 S.Ct. 512, 139 L.Ed.2d 508 (1997). Often, experts will extrapolate from already existing data.
Id.
“But nothing in either
Daubert
or the Federal Rules of Evidence requires a district court to admit opinion evidence which is connected to existing data only by the
ipse dixit
of the expert. A court may conclude that there is simply too great an analytical gap between the data and the opinion proffered.”
Id.
This scientifically valid connection between the opinion and the facts also has been called “analytical fit.”
Rider,
295 F.3d at 1197.
II. BACKGROUND
A. Initiation of the Action
On August 7, 1980, the Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”) issued regulations implementing the New Source Review (“NSR”) provisions of the Clean Air Act. 45 Fed.Reg. 52675 (1980). Under those regulations, existing sources of air pollution were not required to install the state-of-the-art pollution controls mandated of new sources.
Ala. Power Co. v. Costle,
636 F.2d 323, 400 (D.C.Cir.1979). The grandfathering of existing sources was not a perpetual immunity from the NSR requirements; existing plants are required to install modern pollution controls if they undergo any physical or operational change that would result in a significant net emissions increase. 42 U.S.C. § 7475(a); Ala. Admin. Code r. 335-3-14-.04(l)(a).
The Attorney General of the United States, acting at the request of the Administrator of the EPA and through the United States Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama, filed this action against Alabama Power, a wholly owned subsidiary of The Southern Company (“South
ern”).
(Doc. 1). The EPA originally sued Alabama Power and others on November 12, 1999, in the Northern District of Georgia, Case No. 99CV2589. That action was dismissed against Alabama Power on the grounds of lack of
in personam jurisdiction,
and refiled in this District on January 12, 2001.
The EPA alleged that Alabama Power constructed new, or made modifications to, existing, coal-fired, steam driven electrical power generating plants Alabama Power operates in Alabama in violation of the Clean Air Act. (Doc. 127 at ¶ 1). The EPA alleged that Alabama Power commenced maintenance, repair, and replacement activities between 1985 and 1997 that were not “routine,” but were “major modifications” of those plants.
Id.
at ¶¶ 64-67;
see
Ala. Admin. Code r. 335-3-14-.04(2)(b). The EPA alleged that Alabama Power failed to obtain NSR permits in violation of the Prevention of Significant Deterioration (“PSD”) provisions of the Act, 42 U.S.C. §§ 7470-92, and that Alabama Power violated Alabama’s State Implementation Plan (“SIP”). (Doc. 127 at ¶¶ 70-83). The EPA asserted that, as a result of Alabama Power’s operation of the power plants following this construction and modification without the proper permits, massive amounts of sulfur dioxide (“S02”) and nitrous oxides (“NOx”) have been, and are still being, released into the atmosphere.
Id.
at ¶ 2. Of the units initially at issue, the parties have resolved or dismissed all claims other than the following: Barry Unit 2 (replacement of reheater); Gorgas Unit 10 (balanced draft conversion); and Greene County Unit 2 (replacement of primary reheater). All of these units are coal-fired units
B. Operation of the Southern System
Southern Company consists of five system utilities: Alabama Power, Georgia Power Company, Gulf Power Company, Mississippi Power Company, and Southern Power Company. (Doc. 370, Tr. 128). Southern Company Services, owned by Southern Company, manages the generating fleet of those five utilities.
Id.
at 128-29. The intercompany interchange contract, an operating agreement which is approved and accepted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, binds the five utilities together to operate as a single electric utility.
Id.
at 129.
Southern Company determines eight days in advance which units to commit or have online.
Id.
at 131-32. When a unit comes online and is synchronized to the computerized system, it must operate at a level that is at least its minimum operating level to prevent it from becoming unstable.
Id.
at 134, 147. The typical standard for a unit’s minimum operating level is 40 percent of its maximum capacity.
Id.
at 148. The coal-fired units on the Southern system were all designed to run most efficiently at or close to their maximum capacity.
Id.
The difference between each unit’s maximum capacity and its actual generation level is termed spinning reserves.
Id.
at 135. Southern Company is required under Federal Energy Regulatory Commission reliability standards to carry 600 megawatts of spinning reserves at all times.
Id.
at 167-70.
The demand on the system is constantly changing.
Id.
at 149. Southern Company uses a computerized process called automatic generation control to determine in six-second increments whether the generation of the system is equal to the demand on the system.
Id.
at 142^13. If demand on the system increases, Southern Company uses the principles of economic dispatch to determine how much power to obtain from the spinning reserves of each unit in use to meet the increased demand in such a fashion as to minimize cost to its customers.
Id.
at 130. If demand decreases, economic dispatch would tell the company which units to decrease use of in order to minimize cost to its customers.
Id.
at 140-41. Units that respond to these changes in demand are termed load-following units.
Id.
at 141. Gorgas Unit 10, Barry Unit 2, and Greene County Unit 2 have always been operated as load-following units and are kept on automatic generation control.
Id.
at 141-42,151.
Southern Company’s coal-fired units have a minimum time that they must be taken off the system before they can come back online.
Id.
at 151. These times range from 24 hours for the smaller coal-fired units to 72 hours for the larger coal-fired units.
Id.
at 152. Once a coal-fired unit is brought online, it must be left online for a certain number of hours before it is taken off the system in order to stabilize.
Id.
at 154-55. There is no maximum amount of time that a unit may be kept online.
Id.
at 155. When these units were designed it was part of the design feature to recognize that the units cannot be taken off the system at night and brought back online during the day.
Id.
at 152. All the units at issue here are coal-fired units and have a minimum downtime of between 24 to 72 hours.
Id.
at 152-53.
Southern Company has six units, all nuclear, that are not operated on the automatic generation control system.
Id.
at 174. They are loaded to their full capacity whenever they are available and left there “24 hours a day, seven days a week,” because they are the cheapest units in the Southern system.
Id.
at 174-75. Coal-fired units are used to do load-following service because they are more expensive to operate.
Id.
at 175.
III. ANALYSIS
A. Plaintiffs Burden of Proof
The Court has previously explained that Plaintiffs bear the burden of proving, to state a
prima facie
case, that the projects at issue were “major modifications,” meaning “a physical change that resulted in a net emissions increase.” (Doc. 198 at 39);
see Envtl. Def. v. Duke Energy Corp.,
549 U.S. 561, 569, 127 S.Ct. 1423, 167 L.Ed.2d 295 (2007). This requirement is based on the Alabama SIP rules applicable in this case, which provide that a pre-construction permit is only required for a “major modification ... that would result in a significant net emissions increase.” Ala. Admin. Code r. 335-3-14.04(2)(b). “Since the PSD program requires a pre-construction permit in the event of a significant net emissions increase, it is necessary for the utility [] to make a pre-project projection of what actual emissions will be before construction begins.”
Envt’l Def. v. Duke Energy Co.,
No. 1:00CV1262, 2010 WL 3023517, at *5 (M.D.N.C. July 28, 2010); (citing
United States v. Ohio Edison Co.,
276 F.Supp.2d 829, 865 (S.D.Ohio 2003)).
Under the applicable rule, a “[n]et emissions increase” means an “increase in actual emissions ... from a particular physical change.” Ala. Admin. Code r. 335-3-14.04(2)(c). “[AJctual emissions” means
the average rate, in tons per year, at which the unit actually emitted the pollutant during a consecutive 24-month period which precedes the given dat[e] and which is representative of normal source operation ... Actual emissions shall be calculated using the unit’s actual operating hours, production rates, and types of materials processed, stored, or combusted during the selected time period.
Ala. Admin. Code r. 335-3-14.04(2)(u)(l). Further, the Plaintiffs must show that the pre-project projected net emissions increase is greater than the significance threshold. The significance threshold for both N0X and S02 is 40 tons per year. Ala. Admin. Code r. 335-3-14-.04(2)(w).
B. The Koppe/Sahu Methodology
Koppe and Sahu collaborate to provide the heart of the Plaintiffs’ case on emissions. Koppe, a power plant reliability engineer, performed the first part of the analysis, estimating how the projects would affect future generation, while Sahu, an environmental permitting engineer, performed the second part of the analysis, converting the increased generation into increased emissions.
Koppe’s portion of the analysis can be broken down into two parts: (1) determining the effect of the project on the unit’s availability to generate electricity, and (2) determining how much of the increased availability would result in increased generation.
(Expert Report of Koppe of Dec. 14, 2009, Doc. 319 Ex. 5 at 2).
With respect to Barry Unit 2 and Greene County Unit 2, Koppe analyzed historical operating data and records to determine the amount of outage hours caused by the problematic component and the condition of the rest of the unit before the project.
Id.
at 7-8. Based on that information, Koppe then exercised his engineering judgment as to the amount of additional hours that each unit would be available to operate in the future because of the projects.
Id.
at 9-10.
In the case of the Gorgas Unit 10 balanced draft conversion, there was not a single component that had deteriorated nor was there a single component that was causing a considerable amount of outage time.
Id.
at 36. Because of the different effect of balanced draft conversion on availability, the method that Koppe used to calculate the other projects’ effects on availability would not apply.
Id.
Instead, Koppe looked at other Southern Company units that had been converted, calculating the average fractional reduction in the forced and scheduled outage hours per year that had occurred from pre-project to post-project at those units.
Id.
Koppe then applied these average fractional reductions to the pre-project outage hours at Gorgas Unit 10 during the baseline periods selected by Sahu, resulting in the total expected reduction in outage hours per year.
Id.
To estimate how much of this additional availability would actually be used, Koppe calculated utilization factors, also known as the output factor, for each unit.
Id.
at 10.
Although Koppe concluded that Alabama Power reasonably should have expected that demand for each unit’s electricity would increase after the projects, Koppe instructed Sahu to use the historical output factor in his final calculations to isolate the effects of the projects from the effects of demand growth.
Id.
The formula that Koppe used to determine increased generation multiplies the change in availability resulting from the project by the output factor by the maximum output from the unit. (Tr. 17-18).
Sahu then converted the increased generation Koppe had calculated into increased emissions using standard emissions factors for each unit. (Sahu Deposition, Doc. 292 Ex. 15 at 25-26). Sahu concluded that the results of his calculations showed that Alabama Power reasonably should have expected emissions increases greater than the significance threshold for NSR. (Expert Report of Sahu of Dec. 14, 2009, Doc. 319 Ex. 39 at Attach. G).
C. The
Cinergy
Decision
In
United States v. Cinergy Corporation,
623 F.3d 455 (7th Cir.2010), the Seventh Circuit, in an opinion by Judge Posner, addressed this same methodology.
The court found that the methodology used predicts that an increase in a unit’s annual capacity will result in a proportionately equal increase in its output, describing it as stating, “If capacity increased by 10 percent, generation would increase by 10 percent.”
Id.
at 460. Recognizing that utilities operate power generation equipment in three general ways — baseload, cycling, and peaking — the court determined that the methodology used was reliable only when used with “baseload” electric generating units.
Id.
at 459. The court described baseload equipment as “operating virtually continuously,” whereas cycling equipment is “operated on a regular or fairly regular basis, but not continuously.”
Id.
Determining that the plant at issue was operated as a cycling facility because it did not operate at full capacity, the court held that the experts’ testimony should not have been admitted.
Id.
at 460. This Court finds the reasoning of the Seventh Circuit persuasive and agrees that the Koppe-Sahu methodology only works if the unit is operated as a baseload unit.
Although the parties point the Court to various sources for a correct definition of the term “baseload,”
the Court finds that the definition of relevance in this case is the one used in
Cinergy,
namely a facility that operates “virtually continuously” at “full capacity.”
See id.
at 459-60. The Court’s finding that this is the definition of baseload as used by the
Cinergy
court is bolstered by Judge Posner’s citation to
Northern Indiana Public Service Co. v.
Colorado Westmoreland, Inc.,
667 F.Supp. 613, 629 (N.D.Ind.1987), when describing the three ways in which utilities operate power generation equipment.
Cinergy,
623 F.3d at 459-60. In that case, Chief Circuit Judge Easterbrook, sitting by designation, defined a baseload unit as meaning, in industry parlance, “a unit run constantly at maximum efficient output — in other words, supplying the “base load” of the system, while other generators are brought on line or spun up to meet peak loads.”
N. Ind. Pub. Serv. Co.,
667 F.Supp. at 629.
Colorado Westmoreland
is of particular import because Judge Easterbrook sat on the panel in the
Cinergy
decision. Also lending support to this definition of baseload as it pertains to
Cinergy
is the testimony of Mr. Alan M. Hekking (“Hekking”). Hekking testified as an expert witness on behalf of the United States in Cinergy,
(Doc. 367 Ex. 3). In
Cinergy,
Hekking testified on direct examination that baseload units were the ones that ran “full power all day long; so all 24 hours, all the time,” whereas he described cycling units as “during peak demand, you’ll go to full capacity. At night when people turn their lights off and go to bed, those plants will roll back to maybe half capacity, maybe even a third, but they cycle during the course of 24 hours up and down depending on the demand.”
Id.
at 170-71.
The
Cinergy
definition of baseload addresses not only the amount of time that a unit is operated but also the level of output that the unit achieves. The reason that the Koppe-Sahu methodology works for baseload units and not cycling units is because the presumption that an increase in a facility’s annual capacity will result in a proportionately equal increase in its output is only valid if the facility is operated virtually continuously at the highest level of output possible.
The restrictions on the application of this methodology are explained by the Seventh Circuit in
Cinergy:
[T]he Wabash plaint is therefore operated as a cycling rather than a baseload plant and so does not operate at full capacity. There can be no presumption that an increase in its annual capacity would result in a proportionately equal increase in its output. Suppose a modification increased the plant’s annual electrical generating capacity by 10 percent, but because of limited predicted use of standby capacity the output of the modified plant was unlikely to increase at all (just not to fall), and therefore its emission of pollutants was unlikely to increase.
Id.
at 460.
D. The Units as Issue Were Not Baseload
1.
Barry Unit 2
Prior to the replacement of the reheater at Barry Unit 2 in 1997, the unit averaged 36 days per year in reserve shutdown. (Doc. 319 Ex. 5 at 58). A unit is in reserve shutdown when the unit could have operated but was shutdown because it was not needed.
Id.
at 28. In the 24-month time period preceding the replacement, Barry Unit 2 had an actual output factor of 78.7.
Id.
at 60. Thus, during the period prior to the replacement, Barry Unit 2 was not operating 9.9 percent of the time because it was not needed and was operating at
78.7 percent of its total capacity during the times that it was in operation. The Court finds that Barry Unit 2 was not a baseload unit as it did not operate “virtually continuously” at “full capacity.”
See Cinergy,
623 F.3d at 459-60. As Barry Unit 2 was not operated as a baseload unit, Koppe’s and Sahu’s opinion with respect to the replacement of the reheater at Barry Unit 2 will be excluded.
See id.
at 460.
2.
Greene County Unit 2
Koppe states, without giving a specific figure, that Greene County Unit 2 spent “little time” in reserve shutdown during the pre-project period.
(Doc. 319 Ex. 5
at 131 n. 328). In the 24-month time period preceding the replacement of the primary reheater, Greene County Unit 2 had an actual output factor of 78.7. (Doc. 329 Ex. 5 at 125). Thus, during the period prior to the replacement, Greene County Unit 2 was operating at 78.7 percent of its total capacity during the times that it was operating. Even if Greene County Unit 2 operated “virtually continuously,” it did not operate at “full capacity.” Thus, Greene County Unit 2 was not operated as a baseload unit and Koppe’s and Sahu’s opinion with respect to the replacement of the primary reheater at Greene County Unit 2 will be excluded.
See Cinergy,
623 F.3d at 459-60.
3.
Gorgas Unit 10
Koppe states, without giving a specific figure, that Gorgas Unit 10 spent “little time” in reserve shutdown during the preproject period.
(Doc. 319 Ex. 5 at 131 n. 328). In the 24-month time period preceding the balanced draft conversion, Gorgas Unit 10 had an actual output factor of 82.1. (Doc. 329 Ex. 5 at 102). Thus, during the period prior to the replacement, Gorgas Unit 10 was operating at 82.1 percent of its total capacity during the times that it was operating. Even if Gorgas Unit 10 operated “virtually continuously,” it did not operate at “full capacity.”
Thus, Gorgas Unit 10 was not operated as a baseload unit and Koppe’s and Sahu’s opinion with respect to the balanced draft conversion at Gorgas Unit 10 must be excluded.
See Cinergy,
623 F.3d at 459-60.
IV. CONCLUSION
Accordingly, for the reasons stated above, Alabama Power’s Motion in Limine relating to Koppe and Sahu is due to be granted. Specifically, and consistently with the Seventh Circuit’s opinion in
Cinergy,
the Court finds that the methodology employed by Koppe and Sahu is not valid when applied to units that are not operated as baseload units and that none of the units remaining at issue in this case were operated as baseload units during the relevant time periods. A separate order will be entered.